India v Australia 3rd Test ......... Down And Out In Delhi
October 29th 04.00 GMT, Delhi
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Delhi has a population of 17 million. It is one of the most prosperous cities in India but, like most other cities there, the prosperity of some is matched by the destitution and desperation of others.

You can walk along some streets and witness the extremes of human existence. The affluent and well off swanning around in Rickshaws, totally oblivious to the poor unfortunate down and outs who also inhabit this great city.

This Test match could also see Australia down and out of the series. They trail 1-0 with two to play and the very last place they would have chosen to try and square the series would be at the Feroz Shah Kotla ground.

Most teams have grounds which they consider as fortresses, India consider this ground as their very own Fort Knox and Tower of London rolled together , their very own stronghold where the very mention of the words Feroz Shah Kotla sends the shivers down the spines of the opposition.

And no wonder India feel impregnable here. They have won their last seven tests on this ground including convincing wins against Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Australia.

One Indian bowler has a very special liking for this ground, that man is Anil Kumble. This was the scene of his amazing performance against Pakistan in 1999 when he took all 10 wickets in an innings.

Overall here, Kumble has taken 55 wickets at an average of 15.41, including 9 wickets in the match the last time Australia played here in 1996.

Another Indian bowler, Harbhajan Singh also loves this ground. He has only played 4 Tests there, but has taken 18 wickets, with a best of 6-61 in an innings.

If that’s not enough bad news for Australia, a third Indian spinner, Amit Mishra, who took 7 wickets on debut in last test, is also familiar with this pitch as he plays for Delhi Daredevils in the IPL.

But wait, in the words of the comedian Jimmy Cricket, "there's more”!

Not only will the Indian spinners feel at home Delhi, but also Ishant Sharma learnt his cricket there, and even more worryingly for Australia, the opening batsmen Gambhir and Sehwag both play for Delhi too.

The task facing Australia is massive. This is graphically demonstrated by the series averages so far of those that have played both tests.

Only one Australian batsman, Mike Hussey, averages over 40 with the bat, yet no less than six Indian batsmen over 40, five of them over 50!

Only one Australian bowler, Mitch Johnson,  averages less than 44 with the ball, yet no Indian bowler averages over 35!

So, can the Aussies turn it around?

The batting of Hayden, Ponting, Hussey and Clarke has to be respected. They have proved their class over the last decade and it would be foolish to think that they are not capable of turning things around.

However, batting is not their problem, it’s the bowling, and especially their total lack of a genuine world class spinner.

This Delhi pitch is notorious for taking spin throughout a game if you have not got a spinner of note, it’s highly unlikely you will trouble the batsmen too much.

However, if you got fast bowlers that can also take advantage of the slow nature and low bounce of this pitch, then you could get by.

The trouble for Australia is that not only have they been outperformed in the spin department, but more alarmingly for them, they have also been outperformed in the pace department.

Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma have dominated the pace bowling in this series so far. Their ability to reverse swing the ball has been key and once again, the abrasive surface at Delhi will ensure that they are much more likely to get that reverse swing going then the Aussies.

An amazing quirk of India's seven consecutive wins at Delhi has been that the highest scores they have conceded, 422, 329 and 322 have all been against Zimbabwe!

Australia, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, between them, have a highest innings score of 247 all out, with Australia's two efforts being 182 and 234.

I believe India now have the best balanced bowling attack in their history and this mixture of quality spin and pace will keep that sequence going and it will take a monumental effort from Australia to post much more than 250 in either innings.

These low scores would mean that unless we get major weather interruptions, the draw would be out with the washing and India would need to score around 500 or less in total in their two innings to prevail and wrap up the series.

Team selection for this test will be intriguing. For Australia, Stuart Clark is still struggling with an elbow injury and could be missing again. Cameron White has not impressed at all and he has hardly been used. I would expect changes on the spin front with Jason Krejza may be getting the nod over White.

Peter Siddle impressed in the last test as replacement for Clark and if Clark is not fit, then I expect Siddle to retain his place. The other option for Australia would be to do away with any spin and select another fast bowler, probably Doug Bollinger. But going into Delhi without a spinner would be like going into a boxing ring with one hand tied behind your back so I would be surprised if Aussies go with that option.

India's selection should be interesting. Kumble missed the last test, but has now recovered.

In his absence, Dhoni captained the team to one of their biggest ever wins, and Amit Mishra put in one of the great debut performances in Indian history.

So the dilemma is, do they change a winning team, change an inspirational skipper for one that has been less effective and do they drop Mishra debut performance.

Or do they keep a winning team and drop their Captain and a man that has the best bowling record ever in Delhi, Including taking all 10 wickets in an innings.

India could accommodate both Kumble and Mishra by dropping a batsman and playing three spinners. However, at 1-0 up and knowing that batting will be tricky on this pitch, I doubt if they will go down that route.

The curator at Delhi is quoted as saying the pitch "will be present to Kumble”!

There is a strong indication that the pitch will again be a raging turner and I believe India will want Kumble there to accept that "present" from the curator.

India knows that 500 runs in total in two innings should be enough to wrap up the series and so they will probably want to keep their formidable batting line-up. Therefore I believe they will go for a straight swap of Kumble for Mishra.

If India wins this series, I believe Kumble will see that as the perfect moment to retire and Mishra will be back for the series against England, with Dhoni taking over the reigns as captain.

Ok so what’s the bet?

Considering a pitch that will take turn from day 1, considering the manner in which Australia folded in last Test, considering the way both the spin and pace bowlers tormented Australia in this series, considering India have won the last 7 tests on this ground, considering the likelihood that 250 will be difficult for Australia to score in either innings, I would have expected India to be Odds on favourites for this test.

The market disagrees with me on that, the market makes the Draw Favourite, with India 2.9!

Either the market is wrong, or I am. I believe I am right, this 2.9 on India on this pitch is generous to the extreme so the play is:

BACK India for 4 points @ 2.9 on Betfair.

Join me, I am confident that whilst the Australians will still be affluent and well off after this test, they will be down and out in Delhi as far as the test series is concerned.

Bigjoe