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Article: Betting... Pitch strategy is best??

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I have played, watched, followed, loved and adored cricket for over 40 years. I have seen it develop and evolve over those years,

I am also a betting man, and just as cricket has evolved, then so has betting. The biggest change has been the emergence of betting exchanges like Betfair.

Gone are the days of sneaking into smokey, almost dingy, betting shops to get a few quid on a game.

In are the days of the internet, of satellite television. No longer are we restricted to just watching just 4 or 5 home tests a year, a few one day matches and the odd Gilette cup and john player 40 over leagues on a Sunday afternoon.

These days its wall to wall cricket, 3 formats and almost every international match worldwide can be viewed from the comfort of your home right throughout the year.

Betting on Cricket has never been so enjoyable, so varied and so much of a challenge. On the exchanges you can bet on anything from the result of the toss, to individual players performances, highest partnerships, innings runs, completed matches, margins of victory … the list is endless.

In this article and others to follow, I will be outlining some fundamentals about the game of Cricket, from a betting point of view. The different formats, the different approaches and most importantly, how to ensure a regular long term profit from betting on Cricket.

I could write a million words about the subject and it still would not be enough. Cricket can be the most complicated game to understand at times. Yet, if we break it down into small sections, we can make sense of it and slowly but surely, over time, we can get to understand it like we never understood it before.

In this first part I only want to look at one element of the game. It's the most critical part, yet it's amazing how many people do not realise its importance. It's the 22 yards on which the battles are fought.

Yes, the pitch is the most critical factor to take into account when having a bet. Learning how to read a pitch can give punters that all important edge.

Today I just want to look at the one day 50 overs a side format and how to read the pitch in these games. Test Cricket pitches are a different kettle of fish and I will look at them in later articles.

A good and true one day pitch can make an average batsman look world class and a world class bowler look average. Conversely, an unprepared or uneven pitch can make an average bowler look world class and a world class batsman look distinctively average !

Some of the most tense and close one day games have been when either a very high score has been posted by the side batting first … or a very low one .

Reasons for this are simple…. These scores, whether very high or very low, will have been more down to the pitch then individual excellence, or individual failures. There will obviously be exceptions to this rule, but generally speaking that is the case.

From an in running betting viewpoint, this gives an excellent opportunity to make a long term profit.. As soon as one team scores close to or over 300 … or one team is skittled out for sub 200, the prices at the innings break will assume either its too big a total. or too small a total.

However, as I said earlier…. It's these games that are most likely to be close affairs… simply because the totals posted would have been a reflection of the pitch and conditions more then anything else.

Yet the markets will almost always have the fav at around 1.3 or less to win at the halfway stage assuming that the total is too big to chase for outsider, or it's too small for the outsider to defend.

This market perception has been proved to be wrong many times….enough times in fact to ensure a decent long term profit.

Some recent examples include the famous game where Australia posted a then world record 434 …traded at 1.01 at the break….only to see South Africa knock the total off !

Australia also last year posted 330+ and 340+ totals against New Zealand …. Traded as low as 1.02 in running…. Only to see New Zealand knock off those totals too.

England at old Trafford in 2006 scored 318 against Sri Lanka … were trading at 1.18 at the break….. only to see Sri Lanka knock off the runs with nearly 12 overs to spare!

Numerous times a team has only posted around 200 batting first….. yet defended it successfully on many occasions.

Not every occasion obviously, if that was the case we would all be millionaires. But more then enough times to show consistent long term profit.

All these games proved that the market perceptions at the break, whilst being understandable, proved to be woefully wrong. The end results proved that the critical factor was the easiness or the difficulty levels of the pitches and conditions.

I suggest that following a strategy of laying the favourite at innings break after a very big total, or a reasonably small total has been posted by side batting first, is a sound strategy and one that will give plenty of opportunities to lock in a profit when betting in running on the exchanges. I have been following this strategy for quite a few years and I highly recommend it.

Good Luck.

Big Joe
Author: Big Joe, Published 01 Mar 08
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