India v Australia 4th Test.... One Team's Desperation, Another Team's Opportunity

Thursday 6Th November 04.00 GMT
Nagpur

Weather

Let's start with a tribute to one of the worlds best ever spin bowlers who retired after the last Test.

Anil Kumble was unfortunate to be playing at the same time as two other world class spinners, Warne and Murali. He took well over 600 wickets in a career spanning 18 years and he played a massive part in turning India from a mediocre team to one which is on the crest of being the best side in the world.

Kumble formed one half of the famous spin twins partnership for India  with Harbajhan Singh and his greatest moment came in 1999 against Pakistan when he became only the second ever bowler to take all 10 wickets in an innings.

Kumble can be proud of his achievements, Indian fans and genuine lovers of this great game will miss his unique skills and wish him all the best for the future.

The heir apparent to the Indian captaincy, MS Dhoni takes over now and whilst it was sad to see Kumble go, it does herald an exciting new chapter in India Cricket.

MS Dhoni has already proved to be an inspirational leader in all formats of the game. He led India to a memorable win in the inaugural Twenty20 world championship, followed that up by leading India to the CB ODI series win in Australia and has won both tests he has skippered against South Africa and Australia.

Australia done exceptionally well in the last Test at Delhi. Losing the all important toss, they found themselves staring at a massive Indian first innings total of 613-7 declared.
On a ground that usually favoured the Indian spinners, it appeared that the Aussies would struggle to save the game. However a magnificent batting effort saw them more or less match India as they posted 577 in reply.

The draw was always going to the end result after that, and so it proved. It was an honourable draw as far as the Aussies were concerned, already 1-0 down in the series, they could not afford to lose.

They remain 1-0 down going into this final Test at Nagpur. Will they consider another draw here as honourable? … or will their desperation to win at all costs and thereby square the series to retain the Border/Gavaskar trophy prove more relevant ?

This is a brand new stadium and pitch at Nagpur and so there is uncertainty about how it will play. At 1-0 up, India will be happy to see a flat batters dream, or a spinner’s delight. Australia will be hoping for a more lively pitch, maybe a greentop like the one they had here in 2004 when they triumphed by a massive 342 runs.

The weather has been fine last few weeks in Nagpur so we can assume it will not be an under prepared pitch. Initial reports suggest that there is not one blade of grass on the pitch to be used for this match, and with reports that the curator expects it to be a bowler’s nightmare; we can also assume that it will not be another greentop.

A typical low slow spinning track is going to be the most likely sight that greets the teams here and this should please the Indians a lot more then Australia.

India just needs a draw to regain the Border/Gavaskar trophy and their first priority will be to try and bat Australia out of the game. They would obviously like to win but they will not be taking too many chances or risks to achieve it at the expense of a draw.

Australia on the other hand are drinking at the last chance saloon. They have to win to retain the trophy, the draw is no good to them and they will be pulling out all the stops and taking all the risks to ensure they get that win.

So in what form will the likely Aussie desperation manifest itself in this game?

The draw is already trading as short priced favourite. The expectation is that this will indeed be a batter friendly track. India will be looking to bat, bat, bat and bat some more to at least ensure a draw, but the Aussies will have to adopt a different strategy.

They will have to somehow find a way to set up a win. This means they have to be positive and score at a much higher rate then they have so far in this series. This extra positiveness with the bat carries risks, it makes them more vulnerable to a collapse, but that’s a risk they will have to take.

Let’s look at a couple of possible scenarios going into the latter stages of this test.

If Australia are batting last then India will not be setting any realistic target for them to chase up. India will be looking to ensure they don’t give Australia even a small sniff at victory and will not be setting anything less then 6 an over to chase up on last day. Australia though will feel almost obliged by their need to win to go for any target India set. They would rather fail trying to chase an unlikely target then to tamely accept a 1-0 series loss. This chase would again increase the chances of a collapse, but once again it’s a risk they will have to take.

If its India that has to bat last, Australia know that on the evidence of the series so far, they will need to leave themselves at least 100 overs to try and bowl India out a second time.

The omens are not good however. So far in the series, Aussies seem to be taking less and less wickets with each passing match. They took 14 in the 1st Test, this dropped to 13 in 2nd Test and it fell further to just 12 in the last Test.

If we get a scenario of Australia 200 ahead with a day to go, I believe they will feel obliged to declare generously in the hope of getting that win. But of course setting India under 3 an over on last day means they could easily chase it up. Given the choice, I believe Aussies would rather take that risk then to bat on and leave themselves less then 100 overs to bowl India out.

I expect some team changes for this game for both teams. India will hope to see Harbajhan Singh back. He was sorely missed at Delhi, not only his bowling, but his presence against the Aussies always seems to have a positive effect for India.

Australia will have to make changes in their bowling department if they are going to make more of an impact this time. Cameron White has been a major disappointment and I will be surprised if he retains his place. Australia will either bring in another spinner, Jason Krejza, or they might even go down the route of recalling Peter Siddle as another pace option and utilize the part time spin of Clarke and Simon Katich, both of whom bowled just as much as Cameron White at Delhi.

So what the bet?

No bet for me on this game.

 In the series correct score market before the first test, one of our wagers was 2 points on India to win 2-0. We stand to make 15 points profit in that market if India win this Test and I am happy stick with that.

I believe this pitch will be batter friendly with spin coming into the equation in the latter part of the match. Draw backers need to be careful as even if the game seems to be drifting towards a draw after first 4 days, they should not rule out that desperate, generous declaration by Australia in their 2nd innings to try and sneak a win.

India backers need to be careful too as their first priority will be to ensure they don’t lose this game and so will not be taking too many risks.

Australian backers may not ultimately win, but they at least will know that their team will be pulling out all the stops and taking all the risks to at least give themselves a chance.

Overall, I believe the fundamental weakness of Australia in this series, namely their inability to take 20 wickets, will prove to be the key. I will be shocked if, with India 1-0 up, the curator produces a pitch that does not suit India and therefore I believe that India will win this series and retain the Gavaskar/Border trophy.

It just remains to be seen whether they win the trophy with a draw, or a win.

Australia will give it a good shot, they are too proud and have been too good for too long to give up without a fight, but I fear that on this occasion, their desperation for a win could see them lose this test.

Bigjoe