Port of Spain sees the concluding test of this short series. It's a conclusion that Sri Lanka will be very happy to draw.

1-0 up in the series, on the verge of their first ever series win in the West Indies, we will see a different mental approach from Sri Lanka in this match. Of course they would like to win it, but a win will not be at the forefront of their minds.

A bigger priority will be to ensure they don't lose this game, that will mean crease occupation and taking time out of the game will be more important then scoring freely. They have the batsmen in Vandort, Sangakarra, Jayawardne and Dilshan that have experience of playing long, attritional innings to take time out of the game.

I believe Sri Lanka will only have one thing in mind in this test, that is to bat, bat, bat and then bat some more. No sporting declarations from them, no taking any chances to up the scoring rate from them. They will be content to ensure they don’t lose 20 wickets and thereby ensure that series win.

Anyone backing Sri Lanka in this test should be wary and I believe they are not a value bet at the current 2.44 on Betfair.

Windie's batsmen played out Murali very well in the 1st test. That will give them confidence for this one. I would expect another slow pitch to negate Murali again and I fully expect the West Indies to post a very decent score in first innings.

The West Indian bowling however, is without a decent spinning option so is very unlikely to take 20 wickets in this match unless there are some reckless shots from the Sri Lankans. In the position that they are in the series, there will not be those reckless shots from the Sri Lankans and I believe the 4.1 on a Windies win is even worse value then that for a Sri Lankan win.

That leaves the Draw at 2.8 as the outstanding value bet in this test. In my opinion, it SHOULD be odds on. It’s not at the moment, but I am supremely confident that it will go odds on sooner rather then later as both teams post very big first innings scores and the lack of intent by Sri Lanka to win becomes evident.

My strong suggestion therefore is:

BACK the draw @ 2.8 on Betfair for 4 pts.

Bigjoe