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Australia's emphatic 2-0 series loss against India could prove to be the catalyst for a new world order in cricket.

The moment of truth is about to arrive for Australia's recent dominance of the game and this two Test series against a weak Kiwi side will go a long way to either  confirming a further demise of Australian cricket or the launch pad for their revival.

The outcome of this series will determine the prospects of Australia in much bigger series that follow against South Africa and the  Ashes battle in England next summer.

I know what some of you are thinking, you think maybe I am over reacting to a series loss against India, a team that has been alone in more or less matching Australia in recent times. You think that like previously after a setback against India, Australia will stamp their authority on the rest and go on to build amazing test winning sequences.

Of course you may well be right in your thinking, and the market appears to be agreeing with you by making Australia 1.38 to win this test. But the difference this time is that the loss in India was preceded by less then convincing series wins against India, Sri Lanka and away to West Indies. The 2-0 winning score lines against Sri Lanka and Windies flattered the Aussies. There were periods in those series where they looked anything but dominant and both Sri Lanka and Windies had chances to win tests.

The other difference this time was the sheer margin of victory for the Indians. Whereas in previous tests losses against India the Aussies ran them close, this time at Mohali and Nagpur they were totally outclassed and made to look very ordinary.

 The other thing you may be thinking is, Ok losing to India away is one thing, but what relevance does that have for a series at home against one of the weakest test teams currently.

Once again you maybe right in your thoughts, but it was not only India that were buoyed by their efforts against Australia, all the other teams will have been inspired at the sight of the Aussies being humbled. All the other teams will benefit from Australia losing their most precious commodity, no not the loss of Warnie, Mgrath and Gilchrist, but the loss of something much more important. They have lost their aura of dominance. Form comes and goes, but once you lose an aura, it’s lost for good.

I believe Australia have lost that Aura of dominance for good now, and whereas in the past, weaker teams felt almost beaten even before a ball was bowled, now they will be inspired, they will be keen to be the next ones to cash in on any loss of confidence or form that Australia suffer.

I am not going to go overboard and say Australia are finished. Far from it. They still got a very formidable batting lineup and bowling them out twice will still be a massive task for most teams. They will score more then enough runs to ensure they don’t lose too many games.

However, it’s the winning of tests that will be harder for them then ever before. Their weakness remains their bowling. In India, and before that against Sri Lanka and Windies, the Aussie bowling displayed a consistent pattern. This was that whilst they looked threatening with the new ball and took early wickets, they struggled once that ball got older. Jason Krejza had an amazing debut in Nagpur taking 12 wickets, albeit at a record cost in runs for a debutant. He may well be the answer and the alternative for Australia with the older ball. But if he fails, then I believe Australia will continue to struggle to bowl teams out twice.

Overall, I believe in future, Australia will be drawing a lot more games then they win, and losing a lot more games then they ever thought possible.

For this 1st test in Brisbane, Australia will be relieved to see Andrew Symonds back. He was a big loss in India having been one of their in form players in the past year.
Stuart Clarke, Brett Lee and Michael Clarke seem to have got over their illnesses and injuries and so Australia will be at full strength.

The Kiwis go into this series after a hard tour to Bangladesh. The pitches there were not what the Kiwis are used to and they will feel more at home on this Brisbane strip.
On paper they look totally outclassed in all departments, but don’t always read too much into papers!

Hayden, Ponting and Clarke’s batting form has been very patchy of late, and this is a good time for the Kiwi’s to take advantage of that. They have class players themselves in Taylor, McCullum and Vettori and the up and coming pace bowler Tim Southee.

Ok, so what’s the bet?

I think only a brave man would back Australia at 1.38, even at home against one of the weaker teams. The disappointment of the series loss to India will still be fresh in their minds, the pressure is all on Australia to bounce back in style. There has also been rain in Brisbane in last few days, so weather interruptions are possible.

The Kiwis on the other hand have nothing to lose and everything to gain. They prefer these kind of pitches where the ball will come onto the bat and their bowlers will also feel more confident here.

I think a Kiwi win will be very difficult considering the strength of the Aussie batting, but it cannot be completely ruled out, especially at the generous price of 16.5.

I feel a draw will be seen by the Kiwis as a major achievement and they will set their stall out to try and get that draw. The Aussie bowling has proved recently that if you can get through the new ball against them, they are vulnerable and I believe the Kiwi’s strategy will be to get through those early new ball overs reasonably unscathed and to make hay once the ball gets old.

I believed they will be inspired to at least get that draw, I believe they got a great chance of securing that draw at this vulnerable time for Australia and so my suggested bets for this Test are:

LAY Australia for 3 points liability @ 1.39 on Betfair
BACK New Zealand for 0.5 point @ 16.5 on Betfair

Join me and watch how the rest of the world was indeed inspired by India’s win.

Bigjoe