e-mail to friend  print this article

A disappointingly dead track saw the first test end up as a high scoring bore draw. The curator said that the rain in the lead up to the test helped to bind the pitch together and so prevented it from breaking up despite intense heat and humidity on all five days.

Ahmedabad has not had much rain and this time the pitch preparations will not be affected. There will be more life in this track and this time it will crumble by day five.

The pitch for the third test at Green Park Kanpur , is notoriously flat too and I would expect another high scoring bore draw there, so this second test becomes, in effect, a series decider.

The strong South African batting line-up are once again capable of big runs. Their pace bowling will get more help from this Ahmedabad pitch, but once again I expect them to struggle once the ball loses it shine. A South African win, whilst possible, is unlikely in my opinion; they struggled to take 10 wickets in the last test and once again the lack of balance in their attack will make it very difficult for them to bowl this strong Indian batting line-up out twice.

The draw is again favourite in the markets, but at just over 2.0 it represents terrible value. I will be very surprised if 500+ is scored by either side batting in the first innings on this pitch. 350 will be a good first innings score here and 250 will be difficult in the second innings. This would suggest that the draw price should be a lot bigger and I believe that once the game starts, it will get a lot bigger.

The key to this test will be who bats first and who gets that all important first innings lead.

Batting first is obviously a flip of the coin lottery, HOWEVER, that first innings lead for India is almost nailed on in my opinion. The 64000 dollar question is, how big will that lead be?

Tendulkar is out with injury and I would expect Yuvraj to take his place. Sehwag, Jaffer and Dravid all scored big in the first test and I would again expect them to provide a solid foundation for the strong Indian middle order. 400+ should be attainable by India in their first innings and I believe this will lead to a decent first innings lead.

On the bowling front, Harbhajan and Kumble bowled well but the Indian seamers,  Sreesanth and RP Singh were woeful in the first test and I would expect at least one, if not both to be dropped for this game.

In should come the exciting young Ishant Sharma and possibly Irfan Pathan too. This not only improves India 's pace bowling, but also the fielding as Ishant and Irfan are a class above RP and Sreesanth in the field.

Collectively these changes will make the Indian bowling attack much more likely to restrict South Africa to around 350 at most in either innings.

I am confident that, regardless of who bats first,  India will be leading after the first innings by at least 100 runs. This lead will be massive in the context of a wearing pitch on days four and five with Kumble and Harbhajan around and I believe this time that first innings lead will prove to be more then enough to set up an Indian win well before tea on day five.

My strong suggestion is:

BACK India @ 2.8 On Betfair for 4 Pts

Bigjoe

(Ground info supplied by Cricinfo)