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“All change, all change, this train terminates here” is what I often hear as I alight at Green Park tube station in Central London .

This test series also terminates at Green Park, Kanpur , and, after the Indian express hit the buffers at the last stop, I expect “all change, all change” to be ringing in the ears of the Indian camp.

It's all change as far as my prediction is concerned too. Last week I expected the 2 nd test to be a series decider as I was convinced that this 3 rd test would result in a bore draw on the usually flat Kanpur track.

But, at 1-0 down , the  Indian express needs that to change, flat tracks maybe good for trains, but this train is not interested in a smooth ride, this train is looking for cracks in the track, this train is looking for unevenness in the track,  in short, what this train needs to get back on track…….. is a dry, dusty track

The curator at Kanpur has promised a “sporting track”. The same chilling words the curator at Ahmedabad uttered before India 's capitulation.

Having said that, India would prefer another  “sporting track”  rather then the usual Kanpur flat road.

Though they embarrassed themselves at Ahmedabad, they have had success on other “sporting tracks” recently. They have won at the WACA, they won in South Africa and also in England .

If it proves to be a similar track again I think they may think twice about batting first if they win the toss. They have seen that after the first day, the pitch loses its pace and bounce and batting becomes easier. So, this time I can see India inserting South Africa if there is any sign of greenness or moisture on that first morning.

It would be interesting to see what South Africa do if they won the toss if the pitch is another greentop. Will they insert India in the hope of skittling them out again, but knowing that if they fail to do so, they expose themselves to batting last against the spinners.

I expect there will be a lot of pressure on the curator to produce a spinning dustbowl. It's easier said then done, especially if wet weather interrupts the preparations. India will be hoping that any grass be shaved off and the pitch not watered too much in the run up to Friday. If the weather stays hot, we can expect that dry, dusty track. No so much on the first day, but almost certainly by the fourth and fifth days.

Regardless of whether it turns out to be a sporting track, or a dustbowl, India need to make changes to their team if they going to square the series.

RP Singh has been dropped after two woeful displays. In should come Ishant Sharma. Kumble is not a certain starter and Powar has been bought into the squad as cover.

Sachin Tendulkar is missing again and India have to decide if they want to bolster the batting lineup by bringing in Yuvraj Singh, or to stick with playing five bowlers.

I think their need to win this game will mean they stick with the extra bowler.

If the pitch is not looking a dustbowl I would expect them to play Sharma, Sreesanth and Pathan as the seamers, with Harbhajan and either Kumble/ Chawla/ Powar as the two spinners.

If they get their wish and it's a spinning dustbowl, then I think it's almost certain India will go in with three spinners, Sreesanth dropped, Ishant and Pathan as the two seamers.

A draw is still possible, however, with the circumstances and series score that now prevail, with India desperate for a win, and likely to be positive, bordering on the reckless to get that win, I think it's almost certain that there will be a result in this game.

Another South African win cannot be ruled out. They have been very impressive with both bat and ball in this series and, on the face of it, the current 3.8 on them on Betfair seems generous.

An Indian win at 2.82, on the face of it, seems less generous, especially considering the manner of their defeat in last test.

But faces don't always tell the whole story.

I, like the market apparently, am not going to be swayed by a freak batting show in last test. All sides have, at some point or other, had those freakish days. I remember South Africa themselves at home,  being skittled out for 84 against India in December 2006, only for them to go on and win the next two tests in that series.

I believe India will be extremely determined to show the world that their effort in the last test was a temporary blip. They are fighting to remain the 2 nd best ranked team in the Test rankings, they can only remain in that place if they win this test.

There are plenty of incentives for them to go out and win this test in style. It could backfire and they end up losing the series 2-0, but I genuinely believe that their desperation to prove that the last test as a blip will far outweigh their fear of losing in this test.

It's a close call on the value between South Africa and India . If I was certain that a dustbowl is going to be unveiled on Friday, I would make India massive favourites to win. If it's another greentop, I would say South Africa should be massive favourites.

My gut instinct  tells me it wont be a greentop, my gut feeling tells me that , whilst it wont be an absolute dustbowl, it will defiantly be a very spinner friendly track.

I am happy to go with that gut feeling. On a spinners paradise I believe India are value at the current 2.82 on Betfair.

The Indian Express is about to pull into Green Park . This is the last stop. As they alight, these passengers will be more interested in the track then the station. When they look at that track I am confident that after previously flat tracks at Green Park , this one will be a change, all change.

My suggested bet is:

BACK India @ 2.82 on Betfair for 4 points.

Bigjoe.

(Ground info supplied by Cricinfo)