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West Indies v Sri Lanka ODI Series.... Heads I Win, Tails You Lose

Let's have a go at pricing up a market for a coin toss. On probability we would have to go:

Heads 2.0

Tails 2.0

If we wanted to make a few bob, we would go:

Heads 1.9

Tails   1.9

Now let's have a go at pricing up a market for a 2nd coin toss. Would the result of the first toss have a bearing on the market for this 2nd toss?

NO, because each coin toss is an individual event and the probability should remain constant.

We would be foolish to price up a toss as:

Heads 1.9

Tails    2.1

Or vice versa.

This ODI series is in my opinion the proverbial toss of a coin. I believe its absolutely even stevens between these two sides for the first game today , and I further believe that, regardless of today's result, the other two matches in the series should also be absolutely even stevens.

If Sri Lanka had fielded their strongest possible side, they would be clear favourites. But they are giving youth a chance, especially in the bowling department with the regulars Murali, Malinga and Maharoof not included in the squad.

This is the main reason why this series is going to be very tight, and it really is a toss of a coin who wins not only today, but each game.

West Indies last ODI series saw them humbled 5-0 in South Africa . Previous to that however, they beat England away, and India 4-1 at home.

Sri Lanka came out 3rd best in the CB series in Australia , lost the home series against England , but in their last group of games on West Indian pitches, they reached the final of the 2007 world cup.

So both have done well on these Caribbean pitches, despite lack lustre performances elsewhere.

The Windies bowling attack looks stronger then the Sri Lankan attack, however the Sri Lankan batting , especially the middle order of Dilshan, Silva and the exciting all-rounder Kapugedara to follow Tharanga, Sangakarra and Jayawardne, looks to have a clear edge.

With both being great fielding sides, we can see that this series really is too close to call. Neither side should be favourite; neither side should be the outsider.

Blimey, I hear you say, Bigjoe is sitting on the fence!!

Well, yes, but then again, maybe not!

I said earlier that it would be foolish to price up as coin toss as:

Heads 1.9

Tails    2.1

Well, it appears foolishness is abounding as the current market for today's game on betfair is:

West Indies 1.87

Sri Lanka      2.12

In the bookies it's generally:

West Indies 1.73

Sri Lanka    2.0

If this series was decided by three coin tosses, the obvious value bet in all three events would be to back the "outsider" each time.

I believe this series is indeed equivalent to three coin tosses and I strongly advice a back of the "outsider" in ALL three games for level stakes.

I suggest as the first bet:

BACK Sri Lanka @ 2.12 on Betfair for 4 points for today's game.

Then BACK whoever is the "outsider" in the remaining two games for the same 4 points each game.

So, if Sri Lanka win today and are favourites for the 2nd game, Back  West Indies in that 2nd game. If Sri Lanka wins the second game too and are even shorter favourites for the third game, back West Indies again in that third game.

If West Indies win today and Sri Lanka remain "outsiders" for the second game, BACK them again for the 4points, and again in the third game at likely bigger odds if West Indies win second game too.

I believe this simple, yet effective strategy is the way to go to make a profit in this tight series.

Join me and at the end, we could all be saying “Heads we won, tails you lost"

Bigjoe

(Ground info supplied by Cricinfo)