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In the first game, my suggested strategy of backing the outsider in a close contest looked to have paid off with West Indies 9 wickets down, needing 10 of the last 2 balls and Sri Lanka trading on the exchanges at 1.01. The rest, as they say, is history.

The 2 nd game saw Sri Lanka as outsiders again. This time it was not a close game, however they were unlucky with the weather and the Duckworth / Lewis calculations ended up having to defend just 125 in 25 overs. That was never going to be easy, and despite reducing West Indies to 18-3, they were soundly beaten in the end.

The first 2 games were both held at Port of Spain , Trinidad . West Indies won the toss both times and inserted Sri Lanka into bat both times in conditions that favoured the home sides pace attack.

This 3 rd and final game of this series once again sees Sri Lanka as the outsiders. Can they be 3 rd time lucky?

I say, yes, of course they can.

This game is being played at Gros Islet, St Lucia . This pitch will not be as pace friendly as Port of Spain . This pitch will be more in favour of the batsmen and I think a relatively high scoring affair can be expected.

Though West Indies beat Zimbabwe here last time, they lost the previous two games here to Pakistan , conceding scores of 258 and 303.

Whilst Sri Lanka are missing 3 of their main strike bowlers this series, I believe their batting, on a decent pitch, is comparable to the Pakistan side that won those two games so convincingly.

The Windies pacers will not find this pitch as friendly as Port of Spain , and without a top class spinning option, I can again see them conceding a big score of 280 + if Sri Lanka bat first.

If Windies bat first, I expect Sri Lanka 's more balanced attack to restrict Windies to around 260.

That 260 sounds big in the context of this series and will still see Windies favourites at the break, but I believe on this pitch, it would be below par.

In short, Windies will either have to post 280+, or chase up 280+ to have a chance of winning.

Add in the fact that this is a dead rubber and as a result  I expect the intensity levels of the Sri Lankan's to be higher then that of the Windies, then its easy to see why this time it could indeed be 3 rd time lucky for Sri Lanka. Therefore my suggested bet is:

BACK Sri Lanka for 4pts @ 2.12 currently on Betfair.

(Ground info supplied by Cricinfo)