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Firstly let's take a look at the current prices on offer:

The exchanges are showing:

Australia 1.29

India 4.3

At the bookies it's:

Australia 1.2, India 4.33 at Corals and Skybet

Australia 1.29, India 3.5 at William Hills

Hmmmmmm, so looks like the markets have it more or less in the bag for the baggy greens!!

I beg to differ, I believe the markets are so wrong on this one, I believe this is not going to be as one-sided as the markets expect..

In my opinion this series should be even stevens the two … but if there has to be a favourite, it should be India !!

Surely, I hear you say, the markets can't be that far out ….  India be favs ?? … in the words of John McEnroe .. “ you cannot be serious man !“

Well I am being serious and here's why:

In the three completed games between these two in this series so far, Australia have traded in the range of 1.3-1.4 pre-match, but once the action on the pitch gets underway, the prices have been reversed in in two of those three games. India won one at 4.3 after skittling out Australia for 159, got into a winning position in another after having Australia 112-6 at one stage, before recovering to 203 all out and salvaging the game.

In all three games Australia won the toss and batted first when batting was at its easiest and bowled second, under lights when bowling was at its easiest.

Credit obviously to Australian bowlers for their efforts in this series, however it has to be noted that they have bowled second with assistance of the lights in ALL five of their wins.

What happens if they now have to bat second and bowl first?

I believe both their batsmen and bowlers would struggle. The proof will obviously be in the pudding, but if they do not get to bat or bowl in the best conditions, they will be found out in these final games.

The pitches for the best of three final will also be to the Indians liking. If you gave them the choice of venues, they would rip your arms off if you offered them Sydney and Adelaide .

The first game is in Sydney , the third game if required, will be at Adelaide and the middle game at Brisbane .

We saw India score 299 at Sydney last Sunday in a losing cause. But that 299 was the highest ever score by a team batting second at Sydney ! 

I believe if they had batted first on that pitch, they would have comfortably won that match. And if they bat first on Sunday, I expect them to post a huge total and win comfortably. If they are unfortunate to lose the toss again and find themselves chasing, I still think they will win. They scored those 299 runs despite slipping to 51-4 so hopefully this time they won't slip to that and I would fancy them to chase up a big score if Australia post it.

The Brisbane pitch will not be as friendly to India as the other two, however, they showed by winning the test at Perth that they cannot be written off on any surface these days. In the uncompleted match there earlier in the series, India posted just 194, but Australia were reeling at 51-3 in reply before the rains came. That was the only time in this series that Australia batted under lights… and they struggled.

This second game of the final could be a close affair, but anyone taking 1.3-1.4 on Australia would, in my opinion, not be getting value.

Adelaide is another pitch that the Indians love. If the series goes to a third game, then I would expect India to win there too, especially again if they bat first.

So, what's the best strategy, betting wise??

For traders, backing India , or laying Australia has to be the way to go. It's almost certain that once again, in running, India will trade a lot lot lower and that Australia will trade a lot lot higher. I believe India will at least win one of the first two games, and also the third game at Adelaide if the series goes that far.

 My strong suggestion is that you Back India in the Series Outright Market at the currently available 4.3 on Exchanges or at the marginally better 4.33 at Corals or Skybet for 5pts .