India v England 1st Test ..... The Show Must Go On

Chennai, Thursday 11th December 04.00 GMT

Weather

Just moments after going 5-0 up in the ODI series, India’s celebrations and England's disappointments were dramatically and brutally cut short as the scourge of modern day society, terrorism, struck in the heart of Mumbai.

As the carnage and devastation unfolded before our eyes, cricket became irrelevant and thoughts turned to the victims of this atrocity that claimed 174 innocent lives.

 There were reports that westerners were specifically targeted and against this background it was no surprise to see the remainder of that ODI series cancelled and the England team brought back home.

The England players were horrified as they had regularly stayed at one of the targeted locations, the Taj Mahal Hotel, and knew some of the staff that worked there.

The ECB and BCCI wasted no time in sending out positive signals about England returning to India for the Test series and the last week has seen confirmation that indeed the tour will go ahead, but with the venues changed to Chennai and Mohali.

It was no secret that at least a couple of England players had serious concerns about going back. Harmison and Flintoff were reportedly unsure and wanted to reserve the right not to go, even if the rest of the squad agreed.

The England team flew out to Abu Dhabi as an interim measure to train and to await security briefings before deciding wether to fly onto India.

Finally, on Monday night, confirmation came through that not only would England go back, but that the whole squad and backroom staff would do so.

This was a momentous, brave and bold decision. It would have been easy for some players to take the safe route and stay at home. The fact that they all decided, to a man, to defy the terrorists and to make a stand will enhance their standing in the world of cricket.

Whatever the result of this series, England will be winners in the hearts and minds of the cricket crazy Indian population. The war on terror will probably not end in our lifetimes so it was important that England set this precedent to tell the terrorists that they will not win and disrupt the lives of millions. England, by their actions, have sent out a clear message that the show must go on.

Of course the cynics will say that this decision was based on commercial interests. They will say the possible participation of some England players in the IPL, or the need to stay the right side of the powerful BCCI played a major part in this decision.

Whilst it would be naïve to deny that there will have been an element of that, I prefer to give credit to the players instead and commend them for going back to support Indian cricket in their hour of need.

The 1st Test starts on Thursday morning at Chennai. This is normally a batters paradise as was seen in the last test here in March when India scored 627 in reply to South Africa’s 540 in a tame draw.

India v England Cricket Series Statistics

Cricket	Matches	IND won	ENG won	Tied	Draw
Tests	97	18	34	0	45

This time though it could be a different story. There has been rain around and the groundsman has admitted that preparation of the pitch has been hampered. There are storms forecast for next couple of days and there is a possibility that we could have a curtailed Test on an under prepared pitch.

It’s not only the pitch that will be under prepared however. Both teams have had minimal time to prepare and practice and the mind set of the players in the current circumstances will probably lead to under par performances.

There are changes to both sides from the ODI series. For England the test specialists Andrew Strauss, Monty Panesar and Alistair Cook return, but Stuart Broad and Ryan Sidebottom miss out through injury. There is a call up for Amjad Khan, born in Denmark but plays for Kent.

India welcome back their test specialists Rahul Dravid, VVS Laxman and Amit Mishra, who takes over from the retired Anil Kumble. Another retiree, Suarav Ganguly is replaced by the in form Yuvraj Singh.

So what the bet?

Firstly I think it prudent in light of the weather doubts to cut back on the stakes. India’s price has drifted alarmingly with expectations of major rain disruptions and the draw is now trading as favourite.

If we lose two or more days to the rain, then the draw is nailed on. However, sometimes a Test match of 4 days on an under prepared pitch, under overcast conditions and with both sides a bit undercooked is far more likely to produce a result then a 5 day match on a flat track.

India dominated the ODI series; they have most of their batsmen and bowlers playing at the top of their game at the moment and are arguably the best team in the world right now.

England suffered a home test series defeat to South Africa, some of their players have not had any meaningful cricket in last couple of months and their mind set after the events and travelling of the last few days means that they are very unlikely to force a win here.

I am willing to take a chance with the weather and hope that we get at least 4 days play. I believe that will be enough time for a positive result in this game and therefore my suggested bet for this 1st Test is:

BACK India to win for 3 points @ 2.4 on Betfair .

Join me and let’s get this show back on the road.

Big Joe