Australia v South Africa Test Series ....One Dimensional Clash, One Dimensional Result



Starts Perth, 17th December, 02:30 GMT

Weather

Thursday sees the start of this much anticipated clash between the current top two in the Test rankings.

Australia are coming off the back of a confidence boosting 2-0 series win over New Zealand, a confidence that was desperate for a boost after they lost comprehensively away to India.
 
South Africa will also be full of confidence after a run of great series results, including a comfortable win away to England.
 
One of these teams however will see that confidence shattered after this three Test series. Will it be the baggy greens, or the Saffers?
 
I believe it will be South Africa that will see their impressive run come to an abrupt end. It’s nearly 15 years since the Saffers won a test against Australia away. That run is set to continue as I believe their fundamental weakness against a strong batting line up is exposed yet again.

Home Test Series Results - Australia v South Africa

South Africa in Australia Test Series	1910/11		Australia	4-1
South Africa in Australia Test Series	1931/32		Australia	5-0
South Africa in Australia Test Series	1952/53		drawn	2-2
South Africa in Australia Test Series	1963/64		drawn	1-1
South Africa in Australia Test Series	1993/94		drawn	1-1
South Africa in Australia Test Series	1997/98		Australia	1-0
South Africa in Australia Test Series	2001/02		Australia	3-0
South Africa in Australia Test Series	2005/06		Australia	2-0

 
That weakness is their one dimensional bowling attack. But, I hear you say, they have had this one dimensional pace attack for a few years now and yet they still no2 ranked side in the world. Fair point, but its one thing winning against teams that only bat down to no6 and another against teams that bat down to no10.
 
The biggest difference is that whilst a good pace attack can make major inroads with the new ball and decimate a top order, a pace attack alone will struggle to finish the job off with an older ball if there is depth in batting. Teams with weak lower order batting and weak tails rely on their top order to get the runs, and if that top order does not perform, then low scores invariably result. But some teams can withstand loss of wickets to the new ball if they have strong batting throughout their line-up.
 
As regular readers of this column will know, I have opposed Australia a lot recently, with effective results. My main concern about them has never been their batting. On the contrary, I have always said that their batting remained top draw. It was their relative weak bowling attack, after the loss of McGrath and Warne that was the problem. And laying them at prices as low as 1.4 prematch represented value
 
This time though they are not priced up at 1.4 pre match, they are odds against for the 1st Test. That puts a different complexion on things and I believe there is no value in opposing them for this series at these prices.
 
That batting remains top draw for this series. Though the form of Hayden and Ponting has been patchy, the likes of Hussey, Katich, Clarke, Symonds have been impressive. A maiden test century for Brad Haddin recently and with Brett Lee and Mitch Johnson more than capable of contributing with the bat, this Aussie batting is not going to be easy to shift, especially against a bowling attack that lacks variety and is one dimensional.
 
The Aussie bowling attack is also too one dimensional, though it looks like they may have found a half decent spinner in Jason Jrezja. But what they do have is more variation then the Saffers with the older ball. Symonds, Clarke and Katich can be effective as part time bowlers if the pace trio of Johnson, Clark and Lee struggle with older ball.
 
The Aussies pace bowlers also have the edge in experience of bowling on these Aussie tracks over the South African pace quartet of Steyn, Ntini, Moerkel and Zondeki.
South Africa do have spin options in Paul Harris and Robin Peterson, but I will be surprised if either are chosen before the final Test in Sydney, a pitch that usually favours spin.
 
Like Australia, the Saffers batting is strong. Smith and McKenzie at the top of the order have been in good nick all year, and though Kallis has blown hot and cold, the likes of Amla, Prince and De Villiers form an impressive middle order.
 
The Australian bowling will also have its work cut out to restrict this batting line-up therefore I think we could be in for a stalemate or two in this series.
 
So what's the bet?
 
I feel it’s going to be very unlikely that South Africa will win a Test in this series. The Australian batting line-up may have some uncomfortable moments, especially against the new ball, but I feel the Saffers are putting too many eggs in the pace attack basket and the depth of the Aussie batting should ensure against many low scores.
 
I also feel it’s unlikely that the strong Saffers batting line-up will fail in each Test, and therefore we will almost certainly have one, or even two high scoring stalemate draws.
 
The first Test in Perth, on a pitch that is famous for helping pace attacks, represents the best chance of a result. India beat Australia here last Test, but before that defeat, this was seen as a fortress for Australia and one of their favourite grounds.
 
The 2nd and 3rd Tests at Melbourne and Sidney respectively, will likely give us one, if not two high scoring stalemates.
 
I am confident that the most likely series result is going to be a 1-0 triumph for Australia, but 2-0 cannot be ruled out.
 
Therefore my suggested bets for this series are:
 
In the Series Win Market:
 
BACK Australia to win for 5 points @ 1.91 at Stan James
 
In the Series Correct Score Market:
 
BACK Australia to win 1-0 for 2 points @ 10.0 at Betfair
BACK Australia to win 2-0 for 1 point @ 5.5 at Corals or Skybet
 
Join me and lets all benefit from a one dimensional outcome to this one dimensional clash.
 
Bigjoe.