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The speed chess version of cricket carries on in the IPL, and there have been checkmates on a daily basis.

Thursday sees the return of the longer form on the game and I believe this time there is unlikely to be a checkmate, more likely a boring stalemate instead.

Let's look at the prices on the Exchanges:

England   1.74

New Zealand 8.0

Draw 3.25

In my opinion, only one price is right, the other two are woefully wrong.

New Zealand at 8.0 is about right, the England batting is extremely strong, especially with Ambrose and Broad in the lower order and I think the Kiwi bowling will struggle to force a win. However, we have seen England snatch defeat from the jaws of victory or draws in the past and so a Kiwi win cannot be completely ruled out, especially if they bat first and post an imposing total.

England at 1.74 is just plain WRONG !. Of course they can win, but anyone taking 1.7 on them is seriously cheating themselves and it's almost a certainty that they will trade at long odds against in this test at some time. Yes they got the batsmen to post a big score, yes the Kiwi attack looks weak on paper, BUT, to win a test, it does not matter if you score 1000 runs, you need your bowlers to do the business.

I believe that on this Lord pitch , which has become a bit of a pudding in the last few years, it will take a monumental effort from the England bowlers to force a win and I feel they will fall short by a long way. Hoggard, if he plays, Sidebottom, Broad and Anderson all rely too much on helpful seaming conditions. The weather has been gorgeous in London in the last week and is set to continue this week and without any moisture or cloud cover this England bowling attack will struggle after the initial new ball period. Monty Panesar could be a threat, but he seems to have gone off the boil recently and the Lords pitch will not offer him much assistance till the second innings.

The Draw at 3.25 is undoubtedly the value price. Last four tests at Lords have been drawn and I am confident that this will go the same way. The main characteristic of Lords in recent years has been  that it becomes a batters dream in the 2 nd innings and I expect the same again.

The Kiwi batting, though not full of household names, is very capable of scoring enough runs on this pitch, against this bowling attack , in these weather conditions to score more then enough runs to at least ensure a draw.  Though they lack a superstar, they have enough talent in Ross Taylor, McCullum, Oram and Vettori to post big totals.

So, what is best betting strategy for this game?

In my opinion, the draw SHOULD be massively odds on, its not, lets not complain, lets take advantage!

If the pitch or the conditions turn out to be different from what I expect and it becomes a result match, then I see it as even stevens the two as far as the bowling is concerned and the Kiwis would be just as capable of winning on a result pitch as England so I feel it prudent to have a small saver on a Kiwi win too.

My Strong suggestion therefore is:

BACK the Draw @ 3.25 for 4 points (General)

BACK New Zealand @ 8.0 for 1 point (Betfair)

Join me, and though a stalemate could be boring, at least it will be profitable.

Bigjoe.

(Ground info supplied by Cricinfo)