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Australia has been awesome over the last decade, best team I have ever seen. Their amazing seventeen consecutive Test wins, achieved twice, will never be surpassed.

They took Cricket to new levels with their positive batting and aggressive style. No other team will ever dominate to the extent that they have ever again.

West Indies also used to dominate in the 70s and 80s. But they found that there is a shelf life to this dominance, they found that all good things come to an end.

So what's the process that starts a decline from dominance? what are the signs that it's coming to an end?

The first and most important part of the process is when that aura of dominance starts to fade.  Form comes and goes, but once an aura goes, it's gone forever.

Though Australia narrowly won their last test series against India , it was not a dominant performance. In fact, after the Sydney test, they became a very timid side, almost ordinary. This was because of the backlash over their aggressiveness and sledging tactics which had been their trademark over the last decade.

In the last two tests, they were a shadow of themselves, you could almost see that aura disappear, and I believe it's now disappeared for good.

West Indies will have watched that series, they will have learnt and realised that there really is nothing to be scared of now when facing Australia and especially at home, they will be confident of matching them.

The next part of the process is that they start to win less and less games. The great Windies side of the 70s and 80s blew away teams with their battery of fast bowlers. But once the likes of Holding, Garner, Roberts and Marshal retired, the wins count receded alarmingly. They still had strong batting with the likes of Greenidge, Haynes, Richards and co, but it does not matter how many runs you score, if you have not got the bowlers to take twenty wickets.

Australia is now at the same crossroads. They have lost McGrath and Warne, who between them had accounted for over 1200 wickets in last decade. That's a lot of wickets, and no duo that they have now will come close to matching that over the next decade. They still have the batsmen in Ponting, Hayden, Hussey and co, but, like that dominating  Windies team of yesteryear, they too will find that they are winning less and less games.

In short, they will draw a lot more games then they win, they will lose a lot more games then they thought possible.

Sabina Park , Jamaica is the venue for the 1 st Test. Lets look at the prices on the exchanges:

Australia 1.48

Windies 9.6

Draw 4.4

In my opinion NONE of these prices are right.

The draw at 4.4, on the face of it, seems a fair price. Sabina Park is not usually draw friendly with none there since 1997. Windies lost their last two tests there again Pakistan and India quite comprehensively.

However, they were skittled out not by pace, but by the spin of Kumble, Kaneira and Afridi. Without Warne , Australia do not have a spinner in the same class and I fully expect a better showing from Windies this time and they are more then capable of scoring enough runs to secure a draw.

The weather can be very unpredictable at this time of year, and so a drawn match is much more likely then the odds suggest.

Aussies at 1.48 is, quite frankly, a joke!!

Of course they can win, but anyone taking this silly short price is seriously missing out on value. They WILL trade a lot lot lot higher in running, if anyone really wants to back them, I suggest patience is a virtue and they really should wait for the inevitable higher price.

Their bowling attack is the weakest it's been for decades. They even struggled on their home pitches against India . Lee can have his moments, as can Clark . But the likes of Johnson, Noffke, Hilfenhaus and MacGill are average at best. In fact, collectively and on their home pitches, I think the Windies attack of Edwards, Powell, Taylor , Bravo and Sammy are better then the Aussies

The Windies batting has improved steadily over the last year. Though Gayle is out injured, they still have Sarwan, Chanderpaul and Bravo all in good form and I think the Aussies will have their work cut out to take twenty wickets cheaply in this test, even on this bowler friendly track.

Windies at 9.6 is EXCEPTIONAL value. They have won tests recently against South Africa away and Sri Lanka at home.

The Sabina Park pitch will suit their pace bowlers and if we have a low scoring game as has happened at this venue in the past, then I really do make it evens between Aussies and Windies and so the 9.6 is obvious value.

So what's the bet?

I feel extremely confident that laying Aussies throughout this series will lead to a nice overall profit. I think they will win one test at best.

As I said earlier, they still got the batsmen and should score enough runs to at least ensure a couple of draws, but one thing that can be ruled out is a 3-0 win for them.

Therefore, my strong suggestion is:

LAY Australia @ 1.49 for 3 points liability on Betfair

And

BACK West Indies @ 9.6 for 1 point on Betfair

Join me and we can all witness the sheer irony of one team's domination being ended by a team that knows how it feels.

Bigjoe

(Ground info supplied by Cricinfo)