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In the first test I said the 1.7 price on England was wrong as I expected the match to end in a stalemate. I was proved right as even if the rain had not intervened, it was clear that batting was getting easier as the match progressed and a stalemate would still have ensued even if they played the full five days.

Now let's look at the prices on the exchanges for this 2 nd test:

England 1.78

New Zealand 6.6

Draw 3.3

This time I believe only one price is right.

England is rightly favourites and I consider them value at this 1.78.

The Draw and New Zealand prices though should be reversed!

Reasons?

The pitch and the conditions.

Old Trafford will suit ALL the England bowlers to the ground, literally. This will be a lively pitch, plenty of bounce for Broad and this bounce will also suit the spin of Panesar, who has taken eighteen wickets in his last two tests here.

The weather is forecast to be unsettled with showers predicted for first couple of days. These overcast, moist and cloudy conditions will suit the seam and swing bowling of Sidebottom and Anderson.

The downside of unsettled weather of course is that if there is too much of it, then lots of time can be taken out of the match.

However, I believe a fifty over day of overcast damp conditions will produce more wickets then a ninety over sunny day.

Therefore as long as four days play is available I am reasonably certain of a result in this match.

The market will over react to any stoppages though and shorten the draw price, my advice is not to panic. Time can be made up on other days and whilst the forecast is not great, it does not indicate total washouts.

On the batting front, England 's middle order failed miserably at Lords after the openers had given them a good start.

I will be unpleasantly surprised if they fail again and am expecting a better showing this time, culminating in a sizeable first innings lead. This lead will put Kiwis under pressure in their 2 nd innings and I think they will buckle under it.

The kiwi batting recovered in both innings at Lords; however, Old Trafford will be a different matter. There will be no respite as each England bowler will have the conditions to suit and I will be very surprised if the Kiwis post a decent score in either innings.

The Kiwi bowling will also obviously be suited by the conditions, but, collectively, they are not as strong as England on this track and I feel they will struggle to bowl England out cheaply.

My strong suggestion therefore is to back England in this test; I expect a comfortable win for them as long as four days play is available.

But with a small possibility that more then a day will be lost, I think it would be prudent to slightly reduce the stakes and liability.

Suggested bet:

BACK England for 3 points @ 1.78 on Betfair

Bigjoe

(Ground info supplied by Cricinfo)