Australia v South Africa ODI Series ..... Aussies to Saffer some more?

Starts 16th January, 03.15 GMT, Melbourne
Weather

Matthew Hayden has become the latest big name Australian to retire from International cricket. It came as no surprise following a woeful run of form that ultimately led him to be dropped from the ODI squad for this series which starts in Melbourne on Friday.

Hayden has been one the modern greats, his positive, aggressive approach at the top of the order typified the overall dominance by the Aussies over the last decade. His opening partnership with Justin Langer rivalled that of Greenidge and Haynes as one of the best ever in Test Cricket.

His opening partnership with Adam Gilchrist in the ODI format was also legendary and was central in Australia winning the last three World Cups. Hayden has confirmed that he will honour his commitment to playing in the IPL, but we have seen the last of him in International matches. I would like thank him for the memories and wish him a happy retirement.

So where does this leave Australian cricket?

Already reeling for a Test series defeat, how will they cope in the One Dayers without the likes of Hayden and Gilchrist?

Not too well in my opinion.

 In the same way that the loss of Warne and McGrath led to a sudden and dramatic end of their Test dominance, I fear the loss of these two heavyweights at the top of the order will similarly lead to a sudden and dramatic end to their ODI dominance.

Yes they just won the two Twenty20 games comfortably, but that slugfest lottery has no bearing in the longer 50 over format. After years of dominance at home, and even with Hayden and Gilchrist around, the Aussies have lost the last 2 CB series at home. To India last year, and to England in 2007. The triangular series format has now been discarded and replaced by a 5 match series.

Hayden’s replacement at the top of the order is Shaun Marsh. He came to prominence in last years IPL tournament playing for Punjab Kings XI and became an overnight success. He has played a few games now and whilst he has had some good innings, he still has a lot to prove. The Aussies also opened with Michael Clarke a few times but that did not work out as well as they will have hoped. Another option would be the new kid on the block, David Warner who announced himself in spectacular fashion in the first of the Twenty20 games with a blistering knock of 89 in 43 balls. He failed in the 2nd game however and it remains to be seen if he was a one hit wonder or the real thing.

I feel the opening partnership is crucial in ODI games. It sets the trend for the innings, a flying start in the powerplay overs can give a team momentum towards a big score. More often then not, the Hayden/Gilchrist partnership gave Aussies that flying start, but with both now gone, that could be thing of the past.

Another big miss for the Aussies will be Andrew Symonds. Many a time he would be the rock of the late middle order and he won quite a few matches with his big hitting in the later over. Without Him, and the illustrious previous openers, the Aussie batting does not look as daunting to the opposition as it did. Ponting, Clarke and Hussey remain top draw and I think the Aussies will be relying on them much more in future.

As in the Tests though, I feel it’s the Aussies bowling that is going to be the main problem in ODI’s .

No Brett Lee, no Stuart Clark, no Mitchell Johnson. Instead the squad has the bowling of Bracken, Siddle, Tait, Hopes, Hilfenhaus and Hauritz. This is in my opinion the weakest collective bowling the Aussies have fielded in 20 years. Not much experience and all of them under pressure to perform.

South Africa also have a new look side. They are missing Graeme Smith and will be captained by the spinning all rounder Johan Botha. In have come Hershelle Gibbs, Albie Morkel and little known pacer Lonwabo Tsotsobe.

Even without Smith though, the batting order looks formidable. Gibbs, Kallis, De Villiers, Amla, Boucher and the in form Jean-Paul Duminy represent a great line up and if most of them fire in any innings, Australia could be conceding a few massive scores.

On the bowling front I also feel the Saffers shade it. Steyn, Ntini, Morne Morkel and the wily spin of Botha outclasses what the Aussie bowlers have to offer.

Ok so what’s the bet?

Aussies are currently 1.43 to win the series, South Africa 3.9 with the drawn series on offer at 18.0.

Aussies 1.43 is just plain silly in my opinion. They are not the team of old, yet the price suggests they are. I suggest this price is based on Aussies winning the Twenty20 games, which I think is a mistake by the markets. I would not touch this price with a barge pole, even if that pole was a mile long !

The weather has been reasonable lately and it’s unlikely that any of the games will be completely washed out, so there is not much appeal in backing the drawn series.

There is however, a huge appeal in backing South Africa at this very generous 3.9.

There is a chain of thought that says  the Saffers, having achieved their main objective of winning the Test series, are thinking of home and will not be motivated as much as the Aussies for this series. There may well be some merit in this, particularly as the Saffers lost the ODI series 4-0 to England last summer after wrapping up the test series there.

I don’t subscribe to this theory as far as this series is concerned. In a few weeks time Australia tour South Africa. Both sides will want to take a physiological advantage going into that return series and you can bet your bottom dollar that the Saffers will go all out to inflict further blows to the Aussie confidence levels prior to that return series. I fully expect the Saffers to be focused for these games and I believe they will prevail over the 5 games and win the series comfortably.

Therefore my suggested bets for this ODI series are:

In the Outright Series Win Market:
BACK South Africa for 4 points @ 3.9 on Betfair

In the Series correct score market:
BACK South Africa to win 5-0 for 1 point @ 34.0 at Skybet or Bet365
BACK South Africa to win 4-1 for 1 point @ 11.0 at Skybet.

Join me and let’s kick off 2009 in style.

Bigjoe.