As always let's start by looking at the current prices on the exchanges for the 1st Test:

New Zealand 3.85

England 2.80

Draw 2.54

Very close betting, reflecting the uncertainty in the market about this series. To an extent, I share that uncertainty, however I am also reasonably certain that I have the right strategy to ensure a series profit.

The strategy is simple, it's based on the whole three match series and is backing the same outcome for level stakes in the three tests with a view to showing an overall profit after the final test.

So, the 64,000 dollar question is, which outcome will I be backing in each test ……will it be an England win? …..the draw? … Or a New Zealand win?

Let's carry out a process of elimination:

To show a series profit, backing England at these prices would mean they need to win at least two of the tests. On paper they look the better side, but that paper has been found to be wafer thin and fragile before for England, in overseas tests in the last two years. They have won just one test out of their last fifteen overseas!

To be fair, those fifteen tests have been away to Australia and in the sub-continent where it's never been easy. However the fact remains that even though they got themselves in a winning, or at least a non losing position a few times (most notably in the Ashes test at Adelaide and in the Multan test in Pakistan) they could not finish the job off. Until they show that they have not forgotten how to win overseas, I think backing England at 2.8 represents terrible value. They could win one, but as far as certainties go, it's very low down the pecking order.

So how about the draw then?.

On the face of it, both sides seem stronger on the batting front then bowling and this would suggest a stalemate or two. But these New Zealand pitches are good levellers between bat and ball. They can make average bowlers look very good and sometimes unplayable so the chances of three draws in this series are slimmer then a size zero model!

Weather interruptions and maybe one flat track would make one or two draws a possibility, but in my opinion, on these pitches the 2.54 on a draw is also terrible value, and as far as certainties go, it's beneath an England win in the pecking order.

Ok, so if an England win and draw are poor value, this must mean that a New Zealand win is great value! YES, indeed it is! The Kiwis are used to these pitches, having won seven from the last fifteen home tests compared to England's one win from last fifteen overseas tests.

They may not be household names, some are not even famous in their own households!! but they showed in the ODI series that they play well as a team. I am very confident that they will win at least one test, probably two and as a result anyone backing them for level stakes in this series will show a profit at the end.

This is an uncertain world, to some this is an uncertain test series, but I say, with a fair degree of certainty that by joining me in this strategy, you too will end up in profit.

Betting suggestion is simple:

Back New Zealand for 3 pts in EACH test, starting with this 3.85 for the 1st test on Betfair…. Nuff said … job done….good luck.

Big Joe