South Africa v Australia Test Series .... Good for the goose, good for the gander

Starts Thursday 26th February, Johannesburg 08:30GMT
Sky Sports 1

Edward Woodward played the part of the Equalizer in the TV series. He played a former secret agent whose purpose was to atone for his past sins. Whilst the Aussies will not feel they committed any sins, they will be keen to atone for missed opportunities and equalize matters after the loss of both the Test and ODI series at home to the South Africans

They will be even more determined to level things out because of the nature of that Test Series defeat. Frustratingly for them, they dominated most of the games and each time the South Africans fought back from seemingly impossible positions to snatch victories from the jaws of defeat.

Australia’s major problem was the inability of their bowling to finish the job off. The South African tail not only wagged, it actually turned what looked like being first innings deficits into crucial first innings leads. The Australians will obviously have been disheartened by that, yet they can also take a positive in that they know they dominated for long periods and if they can do so again in this series, they got every chance of levelling things out.

So will they do it, can they even the score and get Australian cricket back on track?

To paraphrase President Obama, “Yes they can”!

The South African pace battery of Steyn, Ntini and Morkel will undoubtedly enjoy the extra pace and bounce of the South African pitches. But these pitches will not make any distinction between home bowlers and visitors. That extra pace and bounce will also suit the Australian pacers Johnson, Siddle and Hilfenhaus. In other words, what’s good for the goose will also be good for the gander.

Let’s take a look at recent home series for South Africa.

They were shorts odds on favourite to Beat India in 2006. Approaching the first test the talk was all about how the South African bowlers would blow away the Indian batsmen in the first test. It did not quite work out that way as though South Africa restricted India in their first innings, the pitch ended up suiting the Indian seamers too and they skittled South Africa out for 84 and won the Test comfortably.

In January 2007 at Port Elizabeth, the Pakistan also won a Test with their seamers skittling out South Africa for 124

In December 2007 the West Indies won their first Test overseas for nearly six years by also beating South Africa comfortably after restricting them to just 195 in first innings.

The good news for South Africa however was that in each of these three series they came back strongly to win the series 2-1.
So, I hear you say, even if Aussies win a test here, what’s to stop the South Africans coming back winning the series again?

My retort to that would be simple. The common theme between India, Pakistan and West Indies was that, whilst their bowlers enjoyed these pitches, their batsmen are all used to playing on slower pitches and they historically struggle on the bouncy tracks of South Africa and New Zealand and it was no surprise to see the Saffers come back and win those series.

Australian batsmen will have no such fears. They are brought up on bouncy tracks and I believe that if they take a lead in this series, there will be no coming back for South Africa. In a strange way, these pitches may suit the Australian batsmen a lot better than some at home, which have become slower in recent years.

As I said earlier, Australia’s main problem in the home series was their inability to polish off the South African tails after getting themselves in commanding positions. I think it’s very unlikely that they will suffer the same fate on these pitches as it will be very hard for either of the tails to wag against pace bowling.

The other factor to consider in this series is the expectation one. Whereas South Africa went into the series in Australia as underdogs and the pressure was off, this time the pressure will be on them to prove that that win was not a flash in the pan. This extra pressure could play a major part in this series and this time it will be the Australians with nothing to lose.

Ok, so what’s the bet?

Not surprisingly, after that win away in Australia, South Africa are priced up short favourites at around 1.8 to win this test series. I say thanks but no thanks to that!

I believe the value in this series lies in opposing South Africa. The good for the goose, good for the gander analogy applies on these pitches and I am confident that Australia will come away with at least a drawn series if not a winning one. These pitches don’t do draws very often and I believe there will be results in at least two out of the three games if not all three.

I suggest we play both the Series Outright and Series correct score markets.

My bets for this series therefore are:

In the Series Outright Market:
LAY South Africa for 5 points Liability @ 1.8 at Betdaq
BACK Australia for 3 points @ 4.5 at Sportingbet , Paddy Power, Stan James

In the Series Correct Score Market:
Back Australia to win 2-0 for 1 point @ 15.0 at Bluesq , Totesport, 888sport
Back Australia to win 2-1 for 1 point @ 9.0 Bet365, Totesport, Bluesq , 888sport, Ladbrokes, William Hill

Join me and lets all watch the equalizers in action

Bigjoe