West Indies v England Fifth Test ......In Running



10th March 14:00
Sky Sports 1 (13:30-21:00), Sky Sports HD1 (13:30-21:00)

Just after tea on the fourth day, this Test seemed to be heading towards another high scoring bore draw.

Windies had just posted 544 in reply to England's 546 and the with less then four sessions of the match left, a result in the game looked highly unlikely.

What happened next changed all that. England came out all guns blazing in search of quick runs. They had obviously decided that they were willing to risk losing the series 2-0 rather then settling tamely for a 1-0 defeat.

That positive approach, bordering on the reckless, saw them lose three quick wickets, however they scored at a very healthy rate with Kevin Pietersen leading the way as they closed on 80-3.

So what can we expect on the final day today?

I believe England would like to set Windies around 220 of 65 overs and to do that they will need to score another 140 runs in about 25 overs before lunch. Its possible, however they could easily lose more quick wickets and end up collapsing and windies could end up chasing as little as 180 in 70 overs.

If the target is 220 off 65, the Windies will not be too interested. They lead the series and the draw will be their top priority. But if they are only two or three wickets down going into the last fifteen overs and require less then a run a ball, they could become interested in the win for a couple of wickets before shutting up shop again.

If the target is less then 200 with at least 65 overs left, then a Windies win becomes more likely, but even then they will approach it with caution.

The paradox for England is that their best chance of a win is going to be if they got a good chance of losing. This pitch is still playing well and taking 20 wickets will be difficult to get in two sessions. So I believe England need at least 70 overs to have half a chance of taking those ten wickets and the only way they going to get 70 overs to bowl Windies out is if the target is around 180 and Windies deciding to go for the win.

So what’s the bet?
I believe we are ion for an exciting final day of this test series. The draw is rightly favourite but it would be a brave man to back it at the 1.3 currently available.

The match situation warrants it being a lot higher and I believe that it will trade a lot higher during the day.

I feel that a result is possible and therefore my suggested bet is:

LAY the draw for 3 points liability @ 1.3 on Betfair .

Join me and hopefully we will see a sting in tail of this Test match.

Bigjoe