New Zealand v India Test Series ..... Catch22 for the Kiwis



Starts Tuesday 17th March 22.00 GMT, Hamilton
Sky Sports 1 (22:00-05:00)

The Twenty20 games are over, the 50 over ODI games are over, now we come to the main event, a three match Test Series.

The Kiwi's will have been encouraged by their wins in the Twenty20 series and the early signs suggested that once again India would struggle to come to term with the pitches and conditions in New Zealand. Pitches and conditions that had historically favoured the home side and led to India having probably their worst record away to any major team.

However, any notion that the status quo would remain for the ODI series was soon dispelled as India came back to dominate and win the series comfortably, losing only the dead rubber in last game. This was their first ever ODI series win in New Zealand and the latest triumph overseas for this Indian side that is fast laying the ghosts of previous tours behind them in most countries.

So what led to the dramatic transition from the Twenty20 games performances by the Indians to their dominance in the ODI format? , and more importantly, what can we expect in this Test Series?

The biggest problem India faced in the Twenty20 games was that there were no warm up games on this tour and so these games were in effect their warm ups. They needed time to acclimatise to the conditions, especially the unsettled weather which was a million miles from what they are used to at home. It was no surprise therefore that they struggled in those games.

By the time of the ODI’s though, they had got used more used to the conditions and I a longer format it was inevitable that they would bounce back.

Another major factor has been the recent trend in New Zealand of using “drop in” pitches. These are prepared away from the ground and literally dropped in for each game. These tend to be a lot slower then traditional Kiwi pitches and were more suited to the Indian batsmen.

New Zealand would prefer to have more lively tracks for the Test series, but therein lays a catch22 for them. Whilst the slower “drop in” pitches suited the strong Indian batting lineup, a switch to greener, more lively tracks will probably suit India’s new ball pairing of Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma, arguably the best opening pairing in world cricket right now, a lot more then the Kiwi seamers. So, on balance, I think it’s likely that we will see slower flatter tracks for this Test series too.

There are team changes for both teams from the ODI games. India see the return of their test specialists Rahul Dravid and VVS Laxman. Whilst it may take an innings or two for them to get used to the conditions, the other top order Indian batsmen Sehwag, Gambhir, Tendulkar and Yuvraj have been in good form and so the Indian batting lineup remains formidable.

New Zealand welcome back Chris Martin and James Franklin, but will be without the services of one of their more influential players, Jacob Oram, who has been left out due to a bad run of form and niggling injuries.

Ok so which way will this series go?

New Zealand v India - Test series results in New Zealand

India in New Zealand Test Series	1967/68		India	3-1
India in New Zealand Test Series	1975/76		Drawn	1-1
India in New Zealand Test Series	1980/81		New Zealand	1-0
India in New Zealand Test Series	1989/90		New Zealand	1-0
India in New Zealand Test Match	1993/94		Drawn	0-0
India in New Zealand Test Series	1998/99		New Zealand	1-0
India in New Zealand Test Series	2002/03		New Zealand	2-0

I believe India are too strong for New Zealand and should win the series comfortably. They do however have one obstacle that could prove to be ore then a handful then the Kiwi bowlers. It’s an obstacle that has hindered them in almost every game on this tour so far, namely, the good old Kiwi weather!

It seems that not a day can go past without howling winds and driving rain paying a visit. Some of those visits have been prolonged and once again I expect regular interruptions during this series.

If we were guaranteed over four days play in each test then I would not hesitate in saying that India could win the series 3-0. But the likelihood is that we will lose a fair share of overs in each test and India and the Kiwi’s may do well to force a result in only one or two of the games.

So what’s the bet?

India are very short odds on to win the series outright. In light of the likely weather interruptions, I cannot confidently rule out three damp squibs and a 0-0 series score. Therefore I am not tempted by these short odds on about India.

I suggest minimising the stakes and having a small interest in the Series outright market. I believe the weather will play a part in at least one or two of the games and lead to draws.

Therefore my bet for this series is:

In the Series Correct Score Market:

BACK India to win 2-0 for 1 point @ 6.0 at Corals
BACK India to win 1-0 for 1 point @ 5.0 at Corals

Join me and let’s see if the Kiwis can get out of their catch22.

Bigjoe