South Africa v Australia ODI Series.....Reversing The Reversals



Starts Friday 3rd April, Durban 12.30 GMT
Sky Sports

When these sides met in Australia a short few months ago, South Africa won the first two tests before Australia won the dead rubber third test to limit their series loss to 2-1.

In this return series there was a total reversal with Australia winning the first two tests and South Africa prevailing in the dead rubber third test to limit their series loss to 2-1.

Following the Tests in Australia there was a two match Twenty20 series in which Australia stormed to a 2-0 whitewash.

In this return series, there was a total reversal again as this time it was South Africa that prevailed in the Twenty20 games and they stormed to a 2-0 whitewash.

Friday sees the start of the fifty over ODI games. In Australia it was South Africa that dominated and won the series 4-1.

Australia in South Africa: One Day International Series Results

Australia in South Africa ODI Series	1993/94		Drawn	4-4
Australia in South Africa ODI Series	1996/97		Australia	4-3
Australia in South Africa ODI Series	1999/00		South Africa	2-1
Australia in South Africa ODI Series	2001/02		Australia	5-1
Australia in South Africa ODI Series	2005/06		South Africa	3-2

Will we see yet another total reversal? Will it be Australia that prevails this time?

Regular readers of this column will know that I am not backward in coming forward!

I say categorically, not on your Ned Kelly!

Meatloaf famously sang that two out of three ain't bad, I believe as far as these reversals go, two out three is enough and this ODI series will again see South Africa dominating and prevailing comfortably.

So why am I so confident?

South Africa’s 4-1 in Australia was not a shock to me. I correctly predicted that scoreline on here and the main reason I cited was that in previous two years Australia had lost home ODI series to India and England. I fancied the Saffers to follow suit and they duly obliged.

Australia have been in reverse gear in this format for a couple of years now. They have lost the number one ranking that they held for an eternity and I believe they will continue to tumble down those rankings in the coming year.

Let’s contrast the indifferent home form that Australia had in the lead up to that series with the recent home form of South Africa.

Chalk and cheese comes to mind!

While Australia were losing at home to India and England, South Africa were beating India 4-0, Pakistan 3-0 and West Indies 5-0.

South Africa have only lost two ODI games at home in last twenty four and have won their last ten in a row, albeit these include games against the minnows Bangladesh and Kenya.

The last time these sides met in South Africa, in 2006, it was the Saffers that prevailed 3-2. Australia were a much stronger side then and if they could not win the series at that time, I struggle to find any reason why they can reverse it this time.

On the team news front, South Africa welcome back Graeme Smith after his hand injury. He joins a formidable batting lineup that includes Gibbs, Kallis, Amla, De Villiers, Dumney and Boucher. The bowling attack also looks good with Steyn, Ntini and the Morkel brothers providing the pace options with the wily spin of Johan Botha to torment the Aussies once more.

The Australian’s biggest problem will again be finding an opening batting partnership that can emulate something close to what Hayden/Gilchrist used to do. They were always going to be a hard act to follow and this has proved to be the case. Michael Clarke has been promoted to open the innings but with little success, other contenders could be Haddin or James Hopes but they too will find batting against a new ball a different proposition then batting in the middle or late order against an older ball.

Big players Ricky Ponting and Michael Hussey are both going through a rocky patch with the bat and without them firing the Australian batting looks fragile and, collectively, they are a much weaker batting unit then the South Africans.

Australia also come out second best in the bowling stakes. They will be depending a lot on Mitchell Johnson. The pace backup looks weak and the spin options weaker still. Of the two attacks I believe the Australian one is far more likely to concede big scores and fail to defend smaller scores.

Ok so what’s the bet?

Once again I suggest playing both the Series Outright and Series Correct Score Markets.

Over the five games I believe South Africa will prevail comfortably and suggest backing them to win the series outright.

A repeat of South Africa winning 4-1 again is on the cards, but a 5-0 whitewash cannot be ruled out and so I suggest we cover these two scorelines in the Correct Score Market.

My bets for this series therefore are:

In the Series Outright Market:

BACK South Africa for 5 points @ 1.75 at Boylesports and Sportingbet

In the Series Correct Score Market:

BACK South Africa to win 4-1 for 1.5 points @ 4.8 at Bluesq , 888Sport
BACK South Africa to win 5-0 for 0.5 point @ 13.0 at Paddy Power, Sportingbet and Ladbrokes

Join me and let’s all witness the reversing of the reversals

Bigjoe