BACK New Zealand 3pts @3.25 on Betfair

In my series preview I said backing Kiwis for level stakes in this series will show an overall profit. Their win at 3.85 in the first test has indeed ensured that series profit.

On to the 2nd test, I say get on Kiwis again at windy Wellington, boots'n'all!

Markets have the draw as favourite, England second favourites and New Zealand as the outsiders. I say this market is WRONG, very WRONG!

Wellington will see a result, it will be a seamer's paradise and I expect ball to dominate in this match. A low scoring affair with 300 being a very good score and unless we have major weather interruptions that wash out more then a day, the draw is out of the window. In short, instead of the draw being the favourite, it SHOULD be the outsider of three.

That's leaves a straight fight between England and New Zealand. There has been a lot of talk about England changing their approach and being more positive. That is easier said then done. If a change of approach was all that's needed then why has England managed only one win from last 16 overseas tests? … Tell you why…. It's because their bowlers are simply not up to it as a collective unit. No change of approach by their batsmen is going to improve England's bowling.

It's that bowling that will ensure once again that New Zealand score enough runs to put England under pressure early on in this test and I fully expect the kiwis to have a decent first innings lead.

That first innings lead will again test England's confidence and self belief. Once again I fear they will be found lacking on both fronts.

Kiwis SHOULD be favourites but let's not complain, let's just take full advantage.

BACK New Zealand 3pts @3.25 on Betfair

Big Joe

(Ground info supplied by Cricinfo)