Pakistan v Australia ODI Series.... Past Reputations, Present Realities




Starts Dubai, Wednesday 22nd April, 10.30 GMT.

Pakistan return to competitive action for the first time since their home Test Series against Sri Lanka was brutally curtailed by terrorists in Lahore on 3rd March.

In the aftermath of that attack, the prospects of any Cricket in Pakistan look very bleak in the near future and once again Pakistan find themselves hosting a series in the desert states.

This ODI series comprises five games, the first two in Dubai and the last three in Abu Dhabi, which has become a home from home for Pakistan recently.

Australia v Pakistan ODI Series, 2009

April 2009
Wed 22 14:30 local, 10:30 GMT	1st ODI - Pakistan v Australia Dubai Sports City Cricket Stadium
Fri 24 14:30 local, 10:30 GMT	2nd ODI - Pakistan v Australia Dubai Sports City Cricket Stadium
Mon 27 14:30 local, 10:30 GMT	3rd ODI - Pakistan v Australia Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
May 2009
Fri 1 14:30 local, 10:30 GMT	4th ODI - Pakistan v Australia Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Sun 3 14:30 local, 10:30 GMT	5th ODI - Pakistan v Australia Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi

They have had series at this venue against India, Sri Lanka and West Indies in last couple of years. Overall they have a good record here. They held India to a 1-1 draw, beat Sri Lanka 2-1 and Windies 3-0. Its conditions and pitches that the Pakistan players will me much more familiar with then Australia.

Australia comes into the series after yet another ODI series defeat to South Africa. They lost 4-1 at home to the Saffers and 3-2 in the recent return Series. The overriding pattern in both series defeats was the inability of Australian batsmen to convert reasonably good starts by the openers. Their main problem was coping with spin in the crucial middle overs of the innings. Johan Botha, Van Der Merwe and the part time spin of JP Duminy tormented the Australian middle and late batting order in most of the games. This was no short term blip, more a sign of a fundamental weakness for this new look Australian side.

Australia v Pakistan: One Day International Series Results

Australia in Pakistan ODI Series	1982/83		Pakistan	2-0
Australia in Pakistan ODI Series	1988/89		Pakistan	1-0
Australia in Pakistan ODI Series	1998/99		Australia	3-0
Pakistan in Australia ODI Series	2002		Pakistan	2-1

Some major changes to the squad makes the Aussies task even harder. Big players Ricky Ponting, Michael Hussey and Mitchell Johnson are rested. In come old favourites Brett Lee, Stuart Clark and the controversial Andrew Symonds. Some will say its not a bad swap, however both Lee and Clark are overcoming Injuries and will need time to get back to their best and Symonds form before being dropped was nothing to write home about. In fact at the time of writing, there are fresh doubts about Lee playing in this series.

Ponting, Hussey and Johnson were desperate for a break and a rest before a hectic spell of cricket starts in June in England with the Twenty20 World Cup followed by the all important Ashes series. I believe most of the other Aussies too are desperate for that break after two tough series against South Africa and so I think their concentration and motivation levels will leave a bit to be desired for this series.

Pakistan on the other hand have had the opposite problem. They have hardly had any competitive cricket in last couple of years, mainly because of the continuing security concerns in Pakistan dissuading touring teams from going there.

Pakistan will be keen to make the most of this series; their players will be fresh and raring to go. Led by Younis Khan, their squad looks very formidable both in batting and bowling departments. Butt, Khan, Mailik, Misbah and Akmal are proven strokemakers and all have been in good nick in the few games that Pakistan have played recently. The bowling attack is well balanced with Umar Gul and Sohail Tanvir likely to shine with the new ball and Malik and Afridi to follow with spin in the middle overs.

The likely pitches for this series present a double whammy for the Aussies. Not only will they aid the Pakistan spinners to again torment the Australian middle and late order, but there will not be much pace or swing to aid the Aussies mainly pace attack.

Overall, taking everything into account, I believe Pakistan should be overwhelming favourites to win this series. But guess what, they are not; you could have knocked me down with the proverbial feather when I saw the markets have the Aussies as short priced favourites!

It seems the bookies are pricing on past reputations rather then present reality. That reality is that this Aussie side is on the decline in the ODI format. That reality is that on these pitches Pakistan have been undefeated in ODI series against Sri Lanka, India and West Indies in last couple of year. That reality is that the middle and late order Aussie batsmen are yet to come to terms with spin in the crucial middle overs, and finally, that reality is that the Aussies are missing two of their best batsmen and their best bowler for this series.

So what’s the bet?

Let’s not complain, moan or scratch our heads about the market making Australia favourite. As ever I say let’s take full advantage and therefore my suggested bet for this series is:

In The Series Outright Market:

BACK Pakistan to win for 5 points @ 2.50 at Stan James, Boylesports .

Join me and let’s indeed take full advantage of the bookies pricing on past reputations rather then present realities,

Bigjoe