Some famous Dutchmen - Van Gogh, Johan Cruyff, Ruud Gullit and finally and by all means least, Bigjoe!!!

Yes I am going to be a Dutchman for this test. No I am not going to change nationality, wear clogs and start dancing around the Tulips in Amsterdam. However I will be Dutching a Kiwi win and the draw against an England win in this final test of the series.

I strongly urge you to join me in this strategy with the following staking plan on the prices currently available on Betfair:

BACK New Zealand for 2pts @ 5.1

BACK the Draw for 3pts @ 2.1

This should leave your book looking like this:

NZ + 5.2 pts

Draw + 1.3 pts

England – 5 pts

Now that paints a pretty picture that Rembrandt would be proud of!

Why?

As the aforementioned Van Gogh might say "please lend me your ears" (pun intended)

I can only see two results going into the business end of this test and an England win is not one of them.

They done very well in leveling the series at Wellington and all due credit to them for that. However, as I said in my preview for that test, Wellington would be a seamers paradise and Sidebottom, Anderson and Broad made the most of those conditions.

McLean Park, Napier, however will not be a seamers paradise. Apart from a few early overs with the new ball, it could be a seamers graveyard!

I can see the seamers from both teams being fodder on this track.

This will be a flat pitch, potentially a high scoring bore draw, or in keeping with the Dutch theme, a Boer draw!

The draw is rightly favourite but these two teams have shown in recent years that they are not the best at holding out for draws and so its far from being nailed on.

For there to be a result, the spinners and the slow medium pace bowlers need to come to the party. On that front the Kiwis have a distinct advantage. Oram, Vettori and possibly Patel, if picked, are far more likely match winners then Collinwood and Panesar.

The collective England bowling attack will not be suited to Napier, they will almost certainly concede a very big first innings total and it's the pressure of those runs that could see the England's batsmen struggle in the second innings of the match.

A lot depends on whether the pitch breaks up on days four and five, if it does then I can only see Vettori having the variations and experience to prevail rather then Monty Panesar.

As a result, the ONLY result I can safely discount is an England win. I can lay them for equal profit or I can Dutch the other two results to give me a bigger profit on a Kiwi win.

I decided on the latter option. I am confident that the kiwis will provide serious opposition to the draw in this test and I am hopeful they can pull of a win, if not, then I will be content to make a smaller profit on the only other result that will ensue.

Join me in this strategy, become Dutchmen for this test and together we could all be dancing to the tune of "Tulips from Amsterdam".

Big Joe

(Ground info supplied by Cricinfo)