England v West Indies Test Series....... Green Shoots Of Recovery

Starts Wednesday 6th May 10.00 GMT, Lords

The last few months have been dominated by the gloom and doom of a worldwide recession and credit crunch. Politicians and governments around the globe have been pumping billions into their economies in bailouts and are desperate to see some green shoots of recovery on the horizon.

England's cricketers have also had a depressing time their own winter of discontent. They failed to win a Test against India or West Indies. Their main problem was coping with dead, lifeless pitches that were totally unsuited to their predominantly pace attack. They too will be desperate to see some green shoots of recovery in the form of more lively, greener pitches at home.

England's discontent was not confined to the pitches but also spread to the dressing room. The intervening period between the Indian and West Indies tours saw a public falling out between the then captain and coach, Kevin Pietersen and Peter Moores. The upshot was that Pietersen resigned the captaincy and Moores was sacked.

A new era began with Andrew Strauss as skipper and Andy Flower the new coach. It was not an auspicious start for this duo as they lost the Test series to Windies, however there was the consolation of winning the ODI series that followed.

England lost the first Test of that series in Jamaica after being skittled out for just 51 in their 2nd innings. West Indies then decided to protect that slim series lead by producing lifeless, slow low pitches for the remaining three Tests and played for draws each time. Their strategy nearly came unstuck on a couple of occasions, but the Windies tail frustrated them both times and clung on to draw the games.

So now we have this return series in England. It's not four Tests however, just two starting at Lords and concluding at Chester-Le-Street. Can England avenge that winter defeat?

On these livelier pitches and home conditions, yes they can. But the main problem for England is that in any two Test series you need to get off to a good start, and you definitely cannot afford to lose the opening Test. England have been notoriously slow starters in recent series at home and overseas. They have not won the first test of a series against top opposition for a long time and to make matters worse, the pitch at Lords in the last few years has become very flat and led to quite a few drawn games.

Chester-Le-Street will be more result friendly for the 2nd Test, but, like most result pitches, the conditions will favour both teams and not just the home side so a loss is also possible.

England will have been encouraged to see the Windies soundly beaten by 10 wickets in the warm up game by the England Lions at Derby. This performance and failure to master the swinging conditions by the Windies should give encouragement to the England bowlers.

But warm up games are just that, they are exercises in acclimatising and the main objective for touring sides is to get the batsmen some time in the middle ahead of the bigger games to follow. I think it would be a mistake to put too much emphasis on this defeat as I am sure the Windies will be a lot more focused at Lords.

There are some major changes in the England Squad for this series. The selectors seem to have lost faith in Steve Harmison and he has been dropped. Andrew Flintoff is missing due to yet another injury. They have been replaced in the bowling department by Graham Onions and Tim Bresnan. Both have done well domestically, but the jump up to international class is not easy and it will be interesting to see how they fare.

In the batting department the crucial no3 batting spot has been given to Ravi Bopara. Ian Bell, Owais Shah and Michael Vaughn have all been overlooked. Bopara had a successful spell in the Indian premier League with Kings XI Punjab and also scored his maiden Test Hundred against the Windies in the winter. He is an improving cricketer and it will be interesting to see how he fares in this crucial role.

There are no major surprises in the Windies squad. Chris Gayle and Fidel Edwards will join up with the squad after their stints in the IPL. They are big players and Windies will be hoping that their involvement in the IPL will prove to be a benefit and not a hindrance.

England v West Indies: Test matches in England Series Results

West Indies in England Test Series	1928		England	3-0
West Indies in England Test Series	1933		England	2-0
West Indies in England Test Series	1939		England	1-0
West Indies in England Test Series	1950		West Indies	3-1
West Indies in England Test Series	1957		England	3-0
West Indies in England Test Series	1963		West Indies	3-1
West Indies in England Test Series	1966		West Indies	3-1
West Indies in England Test Series	1969		England	2-0
West Indies in England Test Series	1973		West Indies	2-0
West Indies in England Test Series	1976		West Indies	3-0
West Indies in England Test Series	1980		West Indies	1-0
West Indies in England Test Series	1984		West Indies	5-0
West Indies in England Test Series	1988		West Indies	4-0
West Indies in England Test Series	1991		Drawn	2-2
West Indies in England Test Series	1995		Drawn	2-2
West Indies in England Test Series	2000		England	3-1
West Indies in England Test Series	2004		England	4-0
West Indies in England Test Series	2007		England	3-0

Ok, so what's going to happen, and more importantly, what's the bet?

England have been as low as 1.66 to win this series. I believe there is absolutely no value in this price or the current one of 1.75 considering England's disappointing record in recent first tests of series and especially as the first Test is going to be at Lords, fast becoming one of the flattest batting tracks in England.

I feel these sides are evenly matched in both the batting and bowling departments. Gayle, Sarwan and Chanderpaul are just as likely as Strauss, Bopara and Pietersen to score big. Fidel Edwards and Jerome Taylor are both in form at the moment and will be more than a match with the ball against Stuart Broad and James Anderson.

Any two Test series depends on a good start in first test and I believe Windies are more than capable of at least drawing the first Test, and maybe even winning it. The series could be decided in the 2nd Test at Chester-Le-Street and I make it even stevens between these sides on that more likely result pitch.

Of the two teams I feel it’s the Windies that are playing with self belief and confidence. Chris Gayle has them playing as a united and committed group. I believe they are more than capable of at least drawing this series and maybe even winning it.

I am going to play both the Series Outright and Series Correct Score markets and my suggested bets for this series are:

In the Series Outright Market: 

LAY England for 4 points liability @ 1.75 at Betfair

In the Series Correct Score Market:

BACK 1-1 drawn series for 1 point @ 7.0 Sportingbet
BACK Windies to win 1-0 for 1 point @ 7.0 at Sportingbet
BACK Windies to win 2-0 for 0.5 point @ 34.0 at Ladbrokes

Join me as I feel the green shoots of recovery will prove to be a mirage for England.

Bigjoe