A man goes into hospital with a gammy leg. Doctors tell him they have no option but to amputate and wheel him off to the theatre. He wakes up and the doctor says:

"Sir, I have some good news and some bad news, what would you like first"

Man - "Go on then, give me the bad news"

Doctor - "Sorry, but we amputated the wrong leg"

Man - " What!! .. Go on then, what's the good news"

Doctor - "I am pleased to say the other leg is getting better"

I also got good and bad news for South Africa.

The good news for South Africa in this test is that the pitch at Chennai should at least give some assistance to their one dimensional pace attack with the new ball.

The bad news though is that after the new ball period, rather like that poor man, they going to be out on a limb!

Two in form teams, two strong batting line-ups, two reasonable pace attacks, but there the similarity ends. The key to this test will be the bowling after the initial new ball period. India got balance and variety whilst South Africa will be relying mostly on wickets with that new ball.

On the pace front, Steyn and Ntini opening spells will be critical to the outcome of this match. They are very capable of striking with the new ball and could cause mayhem in the Indian top order. However, the pressure is on them to get those early breakthroughs because as sure as night follows day, if they fail to get two or three wickets with their opening salvos, then this strong Indian batting line-up will make hay with the older ball.

Ishant Sharma and Zaheer Khan are missing for India, but their pace attack of RP Singh, Sreesanth and Irfan Pathan is more then capable of matching South African with the new ball.

So, batting can be equal on their day, so can the pace bowling, we come now to the third critical part of the game .... spin.

On this front, comparing Kumble, Harbhajan and Chawla with Peterson and Harris is like comparing vintage champagne with a swig of acid! .. It really is no contest.

South Africa may only play one spinner, India almost certain to play two and maybe even all three in one of the tests.

South African batsmen have generally shown a weakness against spin in the past, whilst the Indians remain extremely good players of it. Warnie and Murali struggled relatively against India, so with all due respect to Harris and Peterson, I don't think they going to be much of a factor here.

This test will be decided by the effectiveness of the bowling attacks with the older ball.

India will have a two pronged effective strategy for that older ball. Spin and the reverse swing of Pathan and RP Singh.

South Africa will struggle with that older ball, all their Easter eggs will be in the new ball basket. If they fail to capitalise with that new ball, they will struggle to restrict India to less then 450 in their first innings,

At Chennai, that 450 will be a winning score, especially if South Africa has to bat last against Kumble and Harbhajan.

Overall, I expect South Africa's batsmen to make a decent fist of it, however I fear their lack of balance in the bowling department will mean they will not win a test in this series.

My strong advice is:

BACK India for 4pts @ 2.52 on Betfair.

Big Joe

(Ground info supplied by Cricinfo)