ICC World Twenty20....Déjà Vu

Starts Friday 5th June 16.30 GMT
Sky Sports

What a difference two years make. The inaugural World Twenty20 was held in South Africa in 2007. Most teams did not take it too seriously as it was seen as a fun knockabout and they did not feel it had much relevance in the wider world of Test and ODI Cricket.

The final was contested by India and Pakistan with India prevailing in a thrilling last over finish. That win for India changed the face of cricket worldwide forever. That win stirred frenzy amongst the cricket mad fans in India, but more importantly it stirred up visions for the hierarchy of Indian cricket, the BCCI, and big businesses not to mention the stars of Bollywood

The Indian Premier League was born and with it came untold riches for players from around the globe. What had started as a fun knockabout format now became big business with multi million pound sides being put together via player auctions.

Players that were previously disinterested in the format all of a sudden became very keen and the IPL has proved to be a major success, with its second edition just having finished to rave reviews in South Africa.

Day	Time	Schedule	Venue
Fri 5	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT, 10 PM India	1st Match, Group B - England v Netherlands	Lord's, London
Sat 6	10:00 local, 09:00 GMT, 2.30 PM India	2nd Match, Group D - New Zealand v Scotland	Kennington Oval, London
Sat 6	13:30 local, 12:30 GMT, 6.00 PM India	3rd Match, Group C - Australia v West Indies	Kennington Oval, London
Sat 6	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT, 10 PM India	4th Match, Group A - Bangladesh v India	Trent Bridge, Nottingham
Sun 7	13:30 local, 12:30 GMT , 6.00 PM India	5th Match, Group D - Scotland v South Africa	Kennington Oval, London
Sun 7	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT, 10 PM India	6th Match, Group B - England v Pakistan	Kennington Oval, London
Mon 8	13:30 local, 12:30 GMT , 6.00 PM India	7th Match, Group A - Bangladesh v Ireland	Trent Bridge, Nottingham
Mon 8	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT , 10 PM India	8th Match, Group C - Australia v Sri Lanka	Trent Bridge, Nottingham
Tue 9	13:30 local, 12:30 GMT , 6.00 PM India	9th Match, Group B - Netherlands v Pakistan	Lord's, London
Tue 9	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT , 10 PM India	10th Match, Group D - New Zealand v South Africa	Lord's, London
Wed 10	13:30 local, 12:30 GMT , 6.00 PM India	11th Match, Group C - Sri Lanka v West Indies	Trent Bridge, Nottingham
Wed 10	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT , 10 PM India	12th Match, Group A - India v Ireland	Trent Bridge, Nottingham
Thu 11	13:30 local, 12:30 GMT , 6.00 PM India	13th Match - D1 v A2	Trent Bridge, Nottingham
Thu 11	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT , 10 PM India	14th Match - B2 v D2	Trent Bridge, Nottingham
Fri 12	13:30 local, 12:30 GMT , 6.00 PM India	15th Match - B1 v C2	Lord's, London
Fri 12	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT , 10 PM India	16th Match - TBC v TBC	Lord's, London A1 v C1
Sat 13	13:30 local, 12:30 GMT , 6.00 PM India	17th Match - C1 v D2	Kennington Oval, London
Sat 13	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT , 10 PM India	18th Match - D1 v B1	Kennington Oval, London
Sun 14	13:30 local, 12:30 GMT , 6.00 PM India	19th Match - A2 v C2	Lord's, London
Sun 14	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT , 10 PM India	20th Match - A1 v B2	Lord's, London
Mon 15	13:30 local, 12:30 GMT , 6.00 PM India	21st Match - B2 v C1	Kennington Oval, London
Mon 15	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT , 10 PM India	22nd Match - B1 v A2	Kennington Oval, London
Tue 16	13:30 local, 12:30 GMT , 6.00 PM India	23rd Match - D1 v C2	Trent Bridge, Nottingham
Tue 16	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT , 10 PM India	24th Match - D2 v A1	Trent Bridge, Nottingham
Thu 18	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT , 10 PM India	1st Semi-Final - TBC v TBC	Trent Bridge, Nottingham
Fri 19	17:30 local, 16:30 GMT, 10 PM India	2nd Semi-Final - TBC v TBC	Kennington Oval, London
Sun 21	15:00 local, 14:00 GMT 7.30 PM India	Final - TBC v TBC	Lord's, London

The World Twenty20 2009 kicks of on Friday. This time all sides, all players will be taking it seriously. It’s now going to be a showcase event, a window for the players to showcase their skills. Most of the big name players are already in possession of mega money IPL contracts, but for those that are not, this will be a perfect opportunity to promote themselves to potential franchise owners.

So what will happen this time and who will prevail?

Here is my run down of the main contenders and how I think they will fare.

Australia

Very strong in the batting with Haddin and Watson likely to get them off to fast starts more often then not and an impressive middle order of Ponting, Clarke, Hussey and Symonds to follow. However they have tended to struggle against quality spin in the crucial middle overs. Their bowling lacks decent spin options and I believe this will be their downfall. They may post big scores, but will struggle to defend them. They can make the Semi finals, but I will be very surprised if they got any further.

England

On paper England bat all the way down. Bopara in great form at the top of the order, Pietersen, Collingwood, Shah and Prior to follow suggests plenty of fire power. However their main problem will again be one of approach and tactics. England have struggled to come up with successful ways to make the most of the powerplay overs and also struggle against spin in the middle overs. In this tournament the seedings for the super 8 stage have been decided in advance and England are likely to be in the same group as India, South Africa and Australia. I feel they will struggle after the first phase and will not make the semi finals.

India

Arguably the best batting lineup of the lot. Sehwag and Gambhir at the top, followed by an amazing array of strokeplayers in Yuvraj, Raina, Rohit Sharma, Dhoni and Yousef Pathan. All of these are positive attacking players with very high strike rates in this format of the game. In the bowling department they have all angles covered with the pace of Ishant Sharma, swing of RP Singh and class spinners Harbhjajan Singh and Ojha. The team to beat and the most likely winners again.

New Zealand

Semi finalists in 2007, New Zealand can never be written off. The batting remains strong with the likes of McCullum and Jesse Ryder at the top with big hitting Ross Taylor and Jacob Oram to follow suggests they are capable of scoring big. The bowling tends to rely too much on Vettori though and this could be their weak link. They are in the easier half of the draw as far as the super 8 stage is concerned and are again capable of reaching semi finals, but that’s about as far as they will go in my opinion.

Pakistan

The runners up from 2007 have had a horrendous two years. Hardly any competitive cricket at home due to tours cancelled because of the security situation in Pakistan. They have been limited to some ODI matches in Dubai and Abu Dhabi in recent months and come into this tournament a bit rusty. However they still have the balance in both the batting and bowling in this format and I expect them to do well again. Exciting youngster Ahmed Shehzad at the top with experienced Salman Butt, followed by potentially explosive middle and late of Khan, Misbah, Malik, Afridi and Akmal is an impressive batting lineup. The bowling sees the unorthodox pace of Tanvir, the consistency of Umar Gul and plenty of spin options with Afridi and  Malik. Pakistan, after getting rid of the cobwebs in warm up games, are capable of going all the way to the final again.

South Africa

The perennial under achievers in World tournaments. Once again they look an awesome outfit with strong batting in Smith, Kallis, Gibbs, De Villiers, Duminy and Boucher. The bowling also has more balance especially with the recent additions of spinners Botha and Van de Merwe to compliment the pace of Steyn and Morkel. South Africa will probably be playing India, Australia and England in the super 8 stages. Only two of these can go through to the Semi finals. I believe India are nailed on to progress and South Africa will have a mighty tussle with Australia for the other Semi Final place. They are capable, but I fear that once again they will miss out and Australia will pip them for the semis.

Sri Lanka

On paper, Sri Lanka have possibly the best bowling attack in tourney. Malinga, Maharoof, Kulasekara, Murali and Mendis oozes class in this format. However though the batting also looks strong on paper with Jayasarua, Dilshan, Sangakarra and Jawardne at the forefront, it is not as strongly suited to this format as other teams. Sri Lanka are in the easier half of the draw and are capable of reaching semi finals, but I feel they will struggle to go much further.

West Indies

Led by Mr Cool, Chris Gayle, who recently declared his preference for this format over Test cricket. The batting can fire on any given day with Sarwan, Chanderpaul and Bravo to follow Gayle, however the bowling tends to depend too much on Edwards and Bravo. West Indies also find themselves in the “group of death” in the first phase of matches alongside Australia and Sri Lanka. I feel they will struggle to progress to the super 8 stages. And so this could be a short tournament for them.

Ok, so what’s the bet?

I think we are in for Déjà Vu. India are the most likely winners and I feel Pakistan will again be their biggest threat. The batting lineup of India is simply too strong, too deep and now, after two seasons of the IPL, too experienced in this format for the other teams. Pakistan have the balance in bowling and the experience in batting that can take them all the way to the final again. Therefore I am expecting a repeat of the 2007 tournament with an India/Pakistan Final.

Winner

India	4.50  @
Australia	6.00  @
South Africa	6.00  @
Sri Lanka	10.00  @
Pakistan	10.00  @
New Zealand	13.00  @
England	13.00  @
West Indies	15.00  @
Bangladesh	51.00  @

I will be backing both in the outright market, I am very confident that one of them will prevail.

I am also going to have a small interest in the Tournament Top Batsman Market. Openers usually have a great chance to finish highest run scorer as they have time to build big innings. There are many potential candidates and the market will be competitive. Gautam Gambhir excelled in the 2007 tournament. I think we could have another Déjà Vu moment as I expect him to do well again and am happy to have a minimal bet on him to be top batsman.

My suggested bets for this tournament are:

In the Outright Market:

BACK India to win for 5 points@ 4.8 on Betfair

BACK Pakistan to win for 2 points @ 10.0 at Bwin

In the Tournament Top Batsman Market:

BACK Gautam Gambhir for 1 point @ 21.0 at Expekt.

Join me and lets all witness some Déjà Vu

Bigjoe