On the face of it my pre-match back of India at 2.52 is not looking very good so far. But this was a massive toss to win and if India had won the toss that 2.52 would probably not have been seen again.

Current prices on Betfair:

India 8.0

South Africa 8.2

Draw 1.32.

So what happens next?

I said in my preview that balance in the bowling department was going to be key in this test. I said it was two strong batting teams, but on the spin front Harris was not in the same league as Kumble and Harbahjan and that the South Africans would be relying mostly on new ball wickets.

Well, we saw in that last session today, when the Indian openers were vulnerable after nearly two days in the field, Steyn and Ntini look as useful as a chocolate teapot on this track.

The draw is rightly favourite now; HOWEVER, it's not a 1.32 shot. This pitch at Chennai is notorious for breaking up and crumbling late on day 4 and all day 5.

Key to a result in this match is going to be whether India can bat out another 4 sessions. If they can they will be close to parity after lunch on day 4.

If India can reach parity, or even restrict any deficit on 1st innings to less then 75 runs, I would make them more likely winners then South Africa.

This pitch will not be as easy on day 3 as it was on days 1 and 2, BUT, it won't be as treacherous on day 3 as it will be late on day 4 and on day 5.

The Indian spinners taking 9 out of the 10 wickets to fall when pitch was a batting paradise will be more then a handful for south Africa in 2nd innings , PROVIDED that 2nd innings starts after lunch on day 4 at the earliest. I cannot see South Africa scoring much over 200, if that, in their 2nd innings against Kumble and Harbhajan if they are batting in the last 4 sessions of the match.

That 200 ish 2nd innings score for South Africa will open the door for an exciting day 5 in this test with India in with a massive chance.

So the 64000 dollar question is, can India bat through till after lunch on day 4?

I say, YES, of course they can. They have, arguably, the greatest ever collective test batting line-up. With the solid foundation of 82-0 in place, Enid Blyton's lot (The Famous 5) of Sehwag, Dravid, Tendulkar, Ganguly and Laxman are capable of posting a MASSIVE score.

As well as Enid's lot, they got Jaffer, Dhoni, Kumble and Harbhjan who are more then decent batsmen. Collectively I cannot see how they going to fail to post at least 500+ against this one dimensional South African attack ... that 500+ will ensure South Africa's 2nd innings will take place in last 4 sessions of the match when the pitch will be crumbling and the Indian spinners in their glory.

A sub 200 score for South Africa in that 2nd innings is more then likely and when that happens, India's current price of 8.0 will look massive.

My strong suggestion is to have a small top up of 1pt on India at this generous 8.0 on Betfair.

Very small downside, it adds another point to our 4 pts liability on South Africa and the draw, but I am very confident that India will trade a lot lower on days 4 and 5 and the opportunity will be there to either trade out to reduce the liability or to let it ride.

Join me... have another 1pt on India at 8.0 ... You know it makes sense.

Big Joe