The Ashes....Laying the ghost of 2005


England v Australia



Starts Cardiff, Wednesday 8th July,
Sky Sports 1, Sky Sports HD1

The Ashes series of 2005 was one of the most exciting and exhilarating series of modern times. Wednesday sees the start of the latest instalment, and if it's half as exciting, half as dramatic or half as riveting as the 2005 edition, then we are in for a treat.

Ashes Test Match Dates and Venues
Date and Time	Match
Wed Jul 8 - Sun Jul 12 11:00 local | 10:00 GMT	1st Test - England v Australia Sophia Gardens, Cardiff
Thu Jul 16 - Mon Jul 20 11:00 local | 10:00 GMT	2nd Test - England v Australia Lord's, London
Thu Jul 30 - Mon Aug 3 11:00 local | 10:00 GMT	3rd Test - England v Australia Edgbaston, Birmingham
Fri Aug 7 - Tue Aug 11 11:00 local | 10:00 GMT	4th Test - England v Australia Headingley, Leeds
Thu Aug 20 - Mon Aug 24 11:00 local | 10:00 GMT	5th Test - England v Australia Kennington Oval, London

A lot has happened in the intervening four years for both teams. Most notably the return Ashes series in Australia in 2006/2007 saw Australia avenge matters and handed out an embarrassing 5-0 whitewash to England. The relevance of that reversal though is diminished as that series proved to be a swansong for a string of retirements for Australia. Most notably, England’s nemesis Shane Warne and Glen McGrath. Justin Langer, Mathew Hayden and Adam Gilchrist followed soon after and without these players, Australia are a shadow of their former selves.

The Ashes (Australia in England)	1972		drawn	2-2
The Ashes (Australia in England)	1975		Australia	1-0
The Ashes (Australia in England)	1977		England	3-0
The Ashes (Australia in England)	1981		England	3-1
The Ashes (Australia in England)	1985		England	3-1
The Ashes (Australia in England)	1989		Australia	4-0
The Ashes (Australia in England)	1993		Australia	4-1
The Ashes (Australia in England)	1997		Australia	3-2
The Ashes (Australia in England)	2001		Australia	4-1
The Ashes (Australia in England)	2005		England	2-1

Australia’s results since that 5-0 ashes whitewash have been inconsistent. They have lost their aura of dominance and, though they remain the number one ranked Test team, the gap between them and South Africa and India has closed significantly.

They narrowly beat India in a controversial home series in 2007 but lost the return series in India 2-0. There then followed a home and away series against South Africa. They lost at home, but avenged that defeat with a win in South Africa. In other formats, Australia have been humbled by South Africa in their two most recent ODI series and they also suffered a humiliating early exit in the recent World Twenty20 tournament in England.

Australia’s main problem has been finding a world class spinner. Shane Warne was always going to be a hard act to follow, and so it has proved.

Australian Fast Bowler Brett Lee

However it’s not all bad news on the bowling front. Whilst the spin woes continue, two pace bowlers have stepped up to the plate and are improving all the time. Mitchell Johnson and Peter Siddle have been very impressive and with Stuart Clark and Brett Lee still around, Australia still have plenty of firepower.

On the batting front, it’s a lot rosier for the Aussies. Phil Hughes and Simon Katich at the top of the order are settling in nicely and though they will never be in the Hayden and Langer class, they are more then useful. The middle order of Ponting, Hussey and Clarke remains formidable. Add in the middle and late order potential of North, Haddin and Johnson and we get a very strong overall batting line-up.

England’s fortunes since that famous 2005 win have taken a nose dive. Not long after the open bus parades and the bestowing of MBE’s and CBE’s at the palace, England came down to earth with a bump on the sub continent with a 2-0 loss to Pakistan. They followed that up with an honourable 1-1 series result in India, but back on home soil they failed to beat Sri lanka. In fact since 2005, England have not won a test series against a higher ranked team, home or away. In the last two summers at home, though they have beaten lower ranked teams New Zealand and West Indies, they have only won one test match against India and South Africa, and that was a dead rubber once South Africa has sewn up the series.
 Overseas, apart from that embarrassing Ashes whitewash down under, they have failed to win a test in India, Sri Lanka and West Indies on their most recent tours. Their only overseas success came on the seamer friendly tracks of New Zealand.

The Ashes of 2005 was meant to be a start of England push to the summit of world cricket. What transpired though has been a steady downhill trek.

There have been some positives though. Stuart Broad, Jimmy Anderson and Graeme Swann have been bowling well. Andrew Strauss has led by example and is amongst the runs again. But the best news could be that in Ravi Bopara, England may have finally found a solution to the No.3 batting position.

Ok, so how do I see this series panning out, and just as importantly, what are the bets?

Fundamentally, despite their relative decline, the Aussies remain a far better side then England. I believe the highs that England reached in 2005 are confined to the history bins. They are now one of the weaker Test sides, both home and away. There is not enough depth in batting at international level. There is still a big reliance on two or three batsmen. There are no obvious match winners with the ball unless overhead conditions prevail.

There is talk of England taking advantage of Australia’s lack of spin options by preparing spinner friendly tracks. That works well on sub continent, but not so well elsewhere unless you have spinners of the class

Can Spin Win the Ashes For England?

of Murali, Warne or Harbhjan Singh. With all due respect to them, Swann and Panesar are not of the same quality. Also the downside of preparing dry, dusty tracks is that whilst they will aid spin, they will also be of an abrasive nature and this will lead to them favouring reverse swing too. In that department, Australia have the advantage as Johnson, Siddle and Lee are much better at extracting that reverse swing then England’s bowlers.

 Having said that, news hot off the press suggests that Lee will miss the first two tests. This will be a blow to Australia, but with Stuart Clarke to step in, it’s not as bad as it could be.

I feel the biggest factor in this series will be the formidable batting strength and depth of Australia. The general pattern will be that they will invariably post massive totals and England will find themselves constantly under scoreboard pressure. I envisage sizable first innings leads for Australia in most of the games. These deficits will create their own pressures and I believe England will collapse in the face of these pressures.

I believe England will struggle to take twenty wickets cheaply enough to give themselves a chance of winning and I will not be surprised if England fail to win a test.

From a betting viewpoint, there are plenty of markets on offer. I will be involving myself in the series outright market, the series correct score market and the “England to win a Test” market.

Overall I believe this will be a one-sided series, Australia to dominate throughout and therefore my suggested bets for this series are:

In the Series Outright Market:

BACK Australia to win for 5 points @ 2.0 at Betfair

In the series Correct Score Market:

BACK Australia to win 2-0 for 1 point @ 17.0 Bet365, Boylesports, Betfred , Paddy Power, Skybet, Ladbrokes sportsbook
BACK Australia to win 3-0 for 1 point @ 15.0 at Totesport, Skybet
BACK Australia to win 4-0 for 1 point @ 21.0 at Bluesq , 888sport

In the “England to win a test” Market:

BACK  “NO” for 2 points @ 5.0 at Sportingbet .

Join me as I believe the Aussies will indeed be laying the ghost of 2005.

Bigjoe