ICC Champions Trophy
By Bigjoe

Commences Tuesday 22nd September, South Africa.

This exciting mini World Cup tournament kicks off on Tuesday with the hosts, South Africa playing Sri Lanka.

Here is my take on the teams involved, in what I expect to be the reverse finishing order.

West Indies

It’s been a horrendous few months for Windies cricket, dominated by a dispute between the players and their board. With the top players choosing to strike, the Windies have resorted to playing basically a 3rd string team. Captained by 37 year old veteran Floyd Reifer, the Windies only have Darren Sammy, Darren Powell and Devon Smith with International cricket experience. This state of affairs is a shame for Windies Cricket as a full strength side would have had a good chance of success in this tournament. As it is, it’s inevitable that they will struggle, especially as they are in toughest of the two groups with games against India, Australia and Pakistan.

They may have a chance of a giant killing against an undercooked Pakistan, but I cannot see them beating either Australia or India and so an exit after the group games is almost nailed on for the Windies.

West Indies Squad: Floyd Reifer (capt), David Bernard, Tino Best, Royston Crandon, Travis Dowlin, Andre Fletcher, Kevin McClean, Nikita Miller, Kieran Powell, Dale Richards, Kemar Roach, Darren Sammy, Devon Smith, Gavin Tonge, Chadwick Walton (wk).

Pakistan

The recent World Twenty20 winners will have been boosted by that success. They will also be relieved to finally get some competitive cricket under their belts after a baron spell due to all their home series being abandoned because of the ongoing security situation in Pakistan.

On paper, Pakistan have the class, pedigree and experience to go a long way in this series. However, whilst they have played a decent amount of cricket lately, it’s mostly been in Sri Lanka or in the Arab states. The biggest problem for Pakistan is going to be adapting to the more bouncier, faster pitches in South Africa.

The recent edition of the IPL was held on these pitches in South Africa, but the Pakistan cricket board barred its players from playing in that tournament. I believe this will prove to be counterproductive as the experience of playing on these pitches would have proved beneficial to the Pakistan players ahead of this champion’s trophy.

Whilst these pitches will suit the Pakistan bowlers, the batsmen will struggle to cope with the extra bounce and I feel they will not post or chase any decent totals. They are in the harder group along with India, Australia and Windies. I cannot see them beating either India or Australia, indeed I can see them struggling to beat the Windies too in their opening game on Wednesday.

Overall, if this tournament was held anywhere but in South Africa, I would give Pakistan a good chance. But on these pitches, I feel they will be eliminated following the group stages.

Pakistan Squad: Younus Khan (capt), Imran Nazir, Misbah-ul-Haq, Umar Akmal, Shoaib Malik, Shahid Afridi, Rana Naved-ul-Hasan, Fawad Alam, Mohammad Yousuf, Kamran Akmal (wk), Umar Gul, Mohammad Amir, Mohammad Asif, Rao Iftikhar, Saeed Ajmal.

England

Great performance to regain the Ashes this summer. But in this ODI format they have gone from bad to worse. Coming off the back of a 6-1 drubbing by Australia, England go into this tournament with confidence levels shattered. Without Kevin Peitersen and Freddie Flintoff  they have looked out of their depth.

 Only Andrew Strauss has shown any sort of form with the bat. Their general weakness of struggling with power play overs and batsmen failing to go on after getting decent starts continues to be their downfall. On the bowling front they have struggled to bowl teams out and though these pitches in South Africa will be more to their liking, I feel they will still struggle.

In the group stages England are drawn with South Africa, Sri Lanka and the Kiwis. I believe the best they can do is to win one of those games, although a total blank would not surprise me. England have tumbled down the ODI rankings lately, I believe that state of affairs will continue as they fail to get beyond the group stages.

England Squad: Andrew Strauss (capt), James Anderson, Ravi Bopara, Tim Bresnan, Stuart Broad, Paul Collingwood, Joe Denly, Eoin Morgan, Graham Onions, Matt Prior (wk), Adil Rashid, Owais Shah, Ryan Sidebottom, Graeme Swann, Luke Wright.

New Zealand

The Kiwis have in past tournaments punched above their weights and put up spirited displays despite having limited resources. They will be boosted by the return to the fold of Shane Bond and Darryl Tuffey. They have potential matchwinners with the bat in McCullum, Ryder and Taylor, however their middle to late order looks vulnerable.

On these South African pitches it’s easy to lose a couple of quick wickets to the new ball, so sides that bat deep will be better placed to overcome those early setbacks. I feel the Kiwis rely too much on their big three and do not have the depth in batting that is required. In the group stages I believe they will struggle to beat South Africa and Sri Lanka. Their only success will probably come at the expense of England, but that sole victory will not be enough to see them progress into the Semi Finals.

New Zealand Squad: Daniel Vettori (capt), Shane Bond, Neil Broom, Ian Butler, Brendon Diamanti, Grant Elliott, Martin Guptill, Gareth Hopkins (wk), Brendon McCullum (wk), Kyle Mills, Jacob Oram, Jeetan Patel, Jesse Ryder, Ross Taylor, Daryl Tuffey.

South Africa

The perennial under achievers in major tournaments will again be the fancy of many, especially on their home patch. Ranked No1 in the world in ODI’s its easy to make a case for them prevailing. However, I believe they will once again fail to live up to expectations.

 On paper they look irresistible. Strong Batting lineup that bats deep. Well balanced bowling attack, especially with the emergence of their spinners Botha and Van Der Merwe to compliment the pace of Steyn and swing of Parnell. The problem for South Africa though is that they always have looked strong on paper. They always have looked irresistible prior to a tournament. Yet they always find ways to disappoint when it comes to the crunch games.

Once again I see them failing in the crunch games. They should do enough to reach the semi finals, but in those semi finals they are likely to face Australia or India. I cannot see them beating either. Graeme Smith has struggled since his return from Injury. Gibbs has been inconsistent, Kallis and AB De Villiers remain top draw. I feel their downfall could be their weakness against spin bowling. In the Group game I feel the Sri Lankan spinners will highlight this as well as the Indian spinners in a potential Semi Final game.

Overall, South Africa are capable of making it into the semi finals, but once again, that final spot in a major tournament will elude them.

South Africa Squad: Graeme Smith (capt), Johan Botha, Hashim Amla, Mark Boucher (wk), AB de Villiers, JP Duminy, Herschelle Gibbs, Jacques Kallis, Albie Morkel, Makhaya Ntini, Wayne Parnell, Robin Peterson, Dale Steyn, Lonwabo Tsotsobe, Roelof van der Merwe.

Australia

Confidence will be sky high after the 6-1 demolition job against England. Australia are slowly but surely coming to terms with the loss of some big names in recent years. They will never dominate like they used to, but they remain a formidable side and I expect them to do well in this tournament.

Ponting is in great form, Watson has taken to opening like a duck to water, Clarke batting well and return to form for Cameron White. Only concern for Aussies must be the lack of form of Mr Cricket, Mike Hussey. On the bowling front, Lee has returned from injury with a bang, Mitchel Johnson continues to impress and so has the spinner Hauritz.

In the group stages I would expect Australia to comfortably beat the Windies and Pakistan, but their real test will come against their nemesis of late, India. Australia should progress to the Semi Finals, but if the results go as I expect, they will face an uphill task in beating Sri Lanka in the Semi Finals. The Aussies still have a major weakness against spin and I fully expect the Sri Lankan Spinners to exploit that weakness and ensure the Aussies do not progress to the Final.

Australia Squad: Ricky Ponting (capt), Michael Clarke, Nathan Bracken, Callum Ferguson, Nathan Hauritz, Ben Hilfenhaus, James Hopes, Mike Hussey, Mitchell Johnson, Brett Lee, Tim Paine (wk), Peter Siddle, Adam Voges, Shane Watson, Cameron White.

Sri Lanka

In normal circumstances I would not give Sri Lanka much chance on the bouncy South African tracks. These pitches are a million miles from the turgid, slow low tracks in Sri Lanka. But having watched some of them play in the recent IPL on these pitches, I believe they are more capable of adapting. The experience of playing in the IPL will prove invaluable to the already classy batting lineup, and the bowling of Malinga, Murali and Mendis will have benefited too.

At the top of the order Dilshan has been in amazing form. He is partnered by the ageless Jayasuria, with a strong middle order of Sangakarra, Jayawardne and Samaraweera to follow. This batting lineup backed up by, arguably, the best balanced bowling attack in the tournament makes Sri Lanka very strong candidates to reach the final.

I believe they will win all three of their group games against South Africa, New Zealand and England to top the group. I would expect them to meet and beat Australia in the semi finals to take their spot in the final.

Can they win it? … Yes, but only if they avoid India in that final. Their ODI record against India in recent years is nothing to shout home about and if they do meet again in the final, I would expect Sri Lanka to come out second best.

Sri Lanka Squad: Kumar Sangakkara (capt), Muttiah Muralitharan, Sanath Jayasuriya, Mahela Jayawardene, Upul Tharanga, Thilan Samaraweera, Tillakaratne Dilshan, Angelo Mathews, Chamara Kapugedera, Thilina Kandamby, Ajantha Mendis, Thilan Thushara, Nuwan Kulasekara, Dammika Prasad, Lasith Malinga

India

There was a time when Indian cricketers dreaded playing in South Africa. But how times change. These days they feel very comfortable there and look forward to the experience. So what’s changed?

Main difference has been that the Indians have finally come to terms with the bouncy, faster tracks. After so many years of struggles on those pitches, recent visits have been very fruitful. In 2003 they reached the World Cup final there, losing out to Australia. In 2006 they won their first Test match ever in South Africa in what was a closely fought, but losing series. In 2007 India won the inaugural World Twenty20 cup and earlier this year the second edition of the IPL was held in South Africa. This proved to be a success and the valuable experience of playing so many games on these pitches will be key in all future Indian tours to South Africa.

India will be missing the services of master blaster Sehwag at the top of the order and the experienced bowling of Zaheer Khan. But they will be boosted by the return of Gambhir also the recall of the highly experienced Rahul Dravid. Tendulkar is playing some of the best cricket of his life, Raina gets better with each game and with Yuvraj and Dhoni in the middle order, this Indian batting lineup is, arguably the best in the tournament.

There have been question marks against the bowling and fielding of the Indians. Some see this as a hindrance to their chances. This is nothing new though, these concerns have been raised on every Indian  tour in recent years, yet they keep on producing when it matters and as far South African pitches are concerned, India are chasing a third successive final in recent world events there. Their main weapon could be spin. They already have a world class spinner in Harbhajan Singh, but the part time spin of Yuvraj and Raina is coming to the fore more and more.

On paper India have a tough group up against Australia, Pakistan and Windies. But I believe they will cruise through to the semi finals by taking top spot in that group. That should see them meet South Africa in semi finals and Sri Lanka in the final.

I feel confident that they will win that final and the Champions Trophy will be theirs.

India Squad: Mahendra Dhoni (capt), Yuvraj Singh, Sachin Tendulkar, Gautam Gambhir, Rahul Dravid, Suresh Raina, Yusuf Pathan, Harbhajan Singh, Ashish Nehra, RP Singh, Ishant Sharma, Dinesh Karthik, Praveen Kumar, Amit Mishra, Abhishek Nayar.

GROUP STAGE

Group A: Australia, India, Pakistan, West Indies
Group B: South Africa, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, England

ICC Champions Trophy Fixtures

Date and Time	Match
Tue Sep 22 12:30 GMT	Group B - South Africa v Sri Lanka - SuperSport Park, Centurion
Wed Sep 23 12:30 GMT	Group A - Pakistan v West Indies - New Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg
Thu Sep 24 07:30 GMT	Group B - South Africa v New Zealand - SuperSport Park, Centurion
Fri Sep 25 12:30 GMT	Group B - England v Sri Lanka - New Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg
Sat Sep 26 07:30 GMT	Group A - Australia v West Indies - New Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg
Sat Sep 26 12:30 GMT	Group A - India v Pakistan - SuperSport Park, Centurion
Sun Sep 27 07:30 GMT	Group B - New Zealand v Sri Lanka - New Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg
Sun Sep 27 12:30 GMT	Group B - South Africa v England - SuperSport Park, Centurion
Mon Sep 28 12:30 GMT	Group A - Australia v India - SuperSport Park, Centurion
Tue Sep 29 12:30 GMT	Group B - England v New Zealand - New Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg
Wed Sep 30 07:30 GMT	Group A - Australia v Pakistan - SuperSport Park, Centurion
Wed Sep 30 12:30 GMT	Group A - India v West Indies - New Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg
Fri Oct 2 12:30 GMT	1st Semi-Final - TBC v TBC (A1 v B2) - SuperSport Park, Centurion
Sat Oct 3 12:30 GMT	2nd Semi-Final - TBC v TBC (B1 v A2) - New Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg
Mon Oct 5 12:30 GMT	Final - TBC v TBC - SuperSport Park, Centurion

Ok so what’s the bets?

I will be playing the outright win market and also small investments in the tournaments top batsmen and top bowler markets.

I am confident that this Champions trophy will be won by either India or Sri Lanka and that the top performers with the bat and ball will come from those two countries.

In the batting, Tillakaratne Dilshan is in fantastic form at the top of the order for Sri Lanka and has to be the value as top Tournament batsman.

Harbhajan Singh is getting better with age and represents value as top tournament wicket taker.

My suggested bets therefore are:

In The Outright Win Market:

BACK India to win for 5 points @ 5.9 at Betfair

BACK Sri Lanka to win for 3 points @ 8.6 at Betfair

In the Tournament Top Batsman Market:

BACK Tillakratne Dilshan for 1 point @ 21.0 Totesport, Boylesports, Ladbrokes sportsbook, Coral

In The Tournament Top Bowler Market:

BACK Harbhajan Singh for 1 point @ 29.0 at "Extrabet "