ICC Champions Trophy.....Take Two
By Bigjoe

Continues Friday October 2nd, 12:30 GMT

My take one on this tourney did not go quite as I thought it would.

It all started promisingly as one of my picks, Sri Lanka, cruised to a comfortable win against the pre tournament favourites and hosts, South Africa. My pick for top batsman, Dilshan, kicked off with a brilliant century. It appeared that I was on the right lines.

However it all went downhill from there as not only Sri Lanka, but also my other pick India both got eliminated before after the group stages. Its Australia and Pakistan that progress to the semi finals from group A, and very surprisingly, its England and New Zealand that goes through at the expense of Sri Lanka and South Africa.

Here is my take two on the event.

The first semi final on Friday sees England take on Australia at Centurion. England have been the surprise team so far. They have bounced back from a 6-1 series loss to Australia and recorded convincing wins against Sri Lanka and South Africa.

Australia had a scare against Pakistan when they collapsed late on chasing a modest 206 for victory. They held on and scraped through at the expense of India.

If this semi final was being played at the Wanderers rather then centurion, I would have England a big chance as that venue would have suited England bowling attack. As it is, I feel that on this centurion pitch, that bowling will struggle and I believe Australia will prove too strong and progress to the final.

The 2nd Semi Final on Saturday PITS Pakistan against New Zealand at the Wanderers ground. The Kiwis yet again have punched above their weight and, against all expectations, reached another major tournament Semi Final.

Pakistan, despite a slow start against West Indies in the first game, went onto record a convincing win over India, and though they ultimately lost their game against Australia, their bowling very nearly pulled off a miracle and came within a whisker of defending a meagre total of 205.

The Kiwis will be confident playing on this ground having won their previous two games here, however they have lost the services of Jesse Ryder through

Umar Gul

injury and, against Pakistan,  they will be facing what I believe is by far the best bowling attack.

This Wanderers track will suit Shane Bond and Darryl Tuffey, however the Pakistan pace trio of Asif, Gul and Aamir will be licking their lips too and I believe they will prove to be a handful for the Kiwis.

Backing up those pacers, Pakistan have the class spinning trio of Afridi, Ajmal and Malik. A combination of these pacers and spinners in the crucial middle overs of games has proved to be Pakistan’s Strength. There are no weak links there, sides will struggle to score 250 against this attack and I believe Pakistan will win this Semi Final comfortably.

I believe the final will be contested by Pakistan and Australia. It will be held at Centurion, which will suit Pakistan better as it’s more like a sub continent type pitch then a typical South African one. Yes it’s true that Australia scraped home against Pakistan on Wednesday, but that was a dead rubber game for Pakistan. They will be a lot more focused in their next meeting.

Fundamentally I believe Australia’s bowling is not in the same class as Pakistan’s and for that reason I feel that it’s Pakistan that will lift the trophy on Monday.

The betting see’s Australia installed as 2.5 favourites to win the tournament, with Pakistan available at 3.45. England and New Zealand are the outsiders. I believe those odds on Australia and Pakistan should be reversed. I feel Pakistan should now be favourites. They are not favourites, so, as usual, I say. lets not moan, let’s take advantage instead.

My take one on this event lies cut to pieces on the cutting room floor, I am confident however, that take two will prove more successful.

Therefore my suggested bet is:

In The Outright Market:

BACK Pakistan to win for 5 points at 3.60 at Betfair.