Australia v Pakistan Test Series .........Ghost Of Christmas Past

By Bigjoe

Starts Boxing Day, Melbourne.

For the Australian players the seasonal festive cheer and merriment will be tinged with a certain amount of trepidation and nervousness about this series starting on Boxing Day.

In the past, the Boxing Day tests in Australia were fitting climaxes to the Christmas celebrations as they invariably swept aside all opponents and the masses went home a happy bunch.

Sat Dec 26 - Wed Dec 30	1st Test - Melbourne Cricket Ground
Sun Jan 3 - Thu Jan 7	2nd Test - Sydney Cricket Ground
Thu Jan 14 - Mon Jan 18	3rd Test - Bellerive Oval, Hobart

That all changed dramatically last year when the Boxing day Test in Melbourne saw South Africa inflict an extremely rare home series defeat on the Aussies. For once the masses did not go home a happy bunch, for once the festive celebrations came to an abrupt end, for once the Boxing Day Test proved to be a damp squib and an anti climax to the Christmas merriment.

This year’s Boxing Day offering is against Pakistan and I believe that the Ghost of Christmas past will be back again to further haunt the Aussies.

Australia have just completed a 2-0 series win over West Indies. But far from giving them confidence, the climax to that series, with the Windies coming within 36 runs of squaring it, will have left the Aussies a tad nervous at the prospect of facing a Pakistan side that has the batting and bowling that is a class above that of the Windies.

After a convincing win in the opening Test in Brisbane, the Aussies were held to a draw in Adelaide and were made to fight all the way to secure that win in the final test at Perth. This series provided further evidence of the Aussies alarming slide in the Test arena and I believe that slide will continue in this series against Pakistan.

Once again the biggest problem for Australia will be their relatively weak bowling attack. They still got the batsmen capable of scoring runs, but more and more it’s clear that they no longer have a bowling attack that will send shivers down the spine of the opposition.

The Aussies failure to win at Adelaide provides a good indication of how this series against Pakistan will go. The venues for this series are Melbourne, Sydney and Hobart. All these pitches, like Adelaide, have got slower and lower in the past decade. These pitches will not be a hindrance to Pakistan as they will be more akin to Asian tracks then the historical bouncy Aussie ones. I believe this Aussie bowling attack, on these pitches will struggle to take 20 wickets in any of the Tests in this series against a strong Pakistan batting side.

Pakistan come into this series on the back of a creditable 1-1 series draw in New Zealand. On the face of it, a drawn series against one of the lower ranked teams does not sound anything special, especially as the Kiwis were denied a probable win in the final test by rain. But Asian sides have

Pitches have got slower and lower in the past decade Adelaide Oval

historically struggled in New Zealand conditions and Pakistan will have been more than happy with the drawn series.

The pitches and conditions in Australia will be much more to their liking and they will be confident of at least drawing, if not winning this series.

The Pakistan batting is still beset by problems at the top of the order. They have struggled to find a consistent pairing to open the innings. There are no such problems however with their middle and late order. Even with the loss of Younis Khan, they still have Yousef, Misbah and Malik as a strong engine room  backed up by the Akmal brothers who are both in prime form. This batting lineup on these slow pitches will give this Aussie bowling a torrid time and I cannot see them failing twice in any of the Tests.

On the bowling front, Pakistan, arguably, has the best balanced attack in world cricket. In the pace department, Asif has returned and is in great form. He is backed up by Gul and the find of the year Aamir. The classy spinning options of Kaneria and Ajmal gives this attack an irresistible balance that can only spell bad news for the Aussies.

Ok so what are the suggested bets?

Fundamentally, the batting lineups are evenly matched, but Pakistan’s bowling is on a different planet to that of the Aussies and it will prove to be a much stiffer test for the Aussie batsmen then the weakened Windies attack they faced in recent weeks.

I believe Australia will do extremely well to draw this series let alone win it and therefore the value lies in laying them in this series. Pakistan’s bowling is by far the more likely to take 20 wickets on these slow pitches and if any side does win the series, it is going to be them.

My suggested bets for this series are:

In The Series Outright Market:

LAY Australia for 5 points liability @ 1.65 at Betfair

BACK Pakistan  for 2 points @ 6.5 at Betfred , Bluesq , 888Sport, Ladbrokes sportsbook

In The Series Correct Score Market:

BACK Pakistan to win 3-0 for 1 point @ 67.0 at Bet365, Boylesports, Sky Bet

BACK Pakistan to win 2-0 for 1 point @ 23.0 at Betfair , Bet365

BACK Pakistan to win 1-0 for 1 point @ 21.0 at Bet365, Boylesports, Sky Bet

BACK 1-1 draw for 1 point @ 6.0 at Ladbrokes sportsbook .

Join me as I believe that the ghost of Christmas past will indeed reappear.

Bigjoe