Australia v Pakistan ODI Series.... Homely Woes

By Bigjoe

Commences Friday 22nd January, 03.30 GMT

The Test series between these two saw a comprehensive, whitewashing, scoreline of 3-0 to the Aussies. But in reality it was a lot closer with Pakistan somehow managing to grab defeat from the jaws of victory in the 2nd Test.
 

Fri Jan 22	1st ODI - Brisbane Cricket Ground, Woolloongabba, Brisbane
Sun Jan 24	2nd ODI - Sydney Cricket Ground
Tue Jan 26	3rd ODI - Adelaide Oval
Fri Jan 29	4th ODI - Western Australia Cricket Association Ground, Perth
Sun Jan 31	5th ODI - Western Australia Cricket Association Ground, Perth

After that capitulation , Pakistan were always going to struggle to pick themselves up for the third Test and they inevitably lost that to give us that final 3-0 scoreline.

Now we move onto the ODI games and the market seems to be assuming another comprehensive series win for the Aussies. They are installed as very short priced favourites to prevail.

I believe that markets are wrong, wrong and wrong again to make this assumption. Firstly, this is a different format and the Tests results will not have any bearing. Secondly, Pakistan have strengthened their team with the return of the experienced and talented duo of Younis Khan and Shahid Afridi. Thirdly, and most importantly, the markets should take a peek at the recent Aussies performances in ODI series on home soil.

Those home ODI performances have been woeful in the last 3 years. In 2007, after thrashing England 5-0 in Tests, Aussies got beaten in the Ensuing ODI Series. In 2008, after beating India in Tests, they again lost the ensuing

Back in the team Younis Khan

ODI series. Last year saw the Aussies lose their ODI series against South Africa 4-1, and they clung on to a 2-2 drawn series against New Zealand. Overall, the Aussies have lost 9 of their last 15 completed home ODI games.

These performances on home soil do not warrant the Aussies being odds on to win this series. Pakistan are just as formidable in this format as the Indian, South African and England teams that have inflicted recent series defeats to Australia.

The return of Younis Khan and Afridi will provide a great boost to Pakistan. I expect Kamran Akmal to return after being dropped for the third Test. He usually opens in ODI games and can be destructive in that role. The Pakistan bowling will also be strengthened by the return of one of the best depth bowlers in the game, Naved ul Hasan. He along with Gul, Asif, Aamir on the pace front and Afridi and Ajmal as the spinning options gives this Pakistan bowling attack the perfect balance for this format of the game.

Australia will obviously have been boosted by their Test series win, but they have demonstrated in recent years that success in Tests has no relevance to the shorter format of the game. I believe their recent record at home, coupled with the likelihood of a much stronger display by Pakistan in this format means that the outstanding value in this series has to be a lay of the Aussies, and a maximum lay at that.

Therefore my suggested bets for this ODI series are:

In the Series Outright Market:

LAY Australia for 5 points liability @ 1.37 on Betfair

In The Series Correct Score Market:

BACK Pakistan to win 4-1 for 2 points @ 13.0 at William Hill

BACK Pakistan to win 5-0 for 1 point @ 51.0 at Boylesports, Paddy Power & Ladbrokes

Join me as I believe there will be some more homely woes for the Aussies in this series.

Bigjoe