India v South Africa Test Series....Lessons Learnt

By Big Joe

Commences Saturday 6th Feb January, 04.00 GMT

Sat Feb 6 - Wed Feb 10	1st Test - Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium, Jamtha, Nagpur
Sun Feb 14 - Thu Feb 18	2nd Test - Eden Gardens, Kolkata

Saturday sees the start of this mouth watering 2 test mini series between the top two ranked Test teams. They last met on Indian soil in April 2008 when the honours were shared in a 1-1 drawn series.

India learnt a big lesson in that series, namely, do not play into the pace bowling hands of the Saffers by preparing a lively, bouncy track. That was exactly what happened in the Ahmedabad Test in that series and the upshot was that India were skittled out for 76 runs in only 20 overs. There was no coming back from that start and South Africa inevitably took the lead going into the 2nd Test at Kanpur.

This time, the groundsman got it right and prepared a pitch that suited India’s superior spin bowlers and this time it was the Saffers that were skittled out for just 121 in their 2nd innings and India squared the series with a dominant 8 wicket win.

The lesson learnt from that series will still be fresh in the minds of the groundsmen at Nagpur and Kiolkata, the venues for this series. I am expecting the pitches to be prepared to suit the home team. They will be slow and low and the South African pace bowlers will not be too fond of them.

South Africa took over from Australia as the No1 ranked team after a stunning series win away. But instead of building on that success, they have come down to earth with a bump losing the return home series against Australia and only drawing at home to England. Their main problems have been

Has looked impressive Murali Vijay

finding a regular opening partner for Graeme Smith, the sudden loss of form of the middle order batsman that promised so much, Jean-Paul Duminy, and the inconsistency of their spinner Paul Harris. On these pitches, I believe these problems will continue and the Saffers are in for a torrid time.

India on the other hand have continued their impressive Test form and have stretched their unbeaten run in test matches to fourteen matches and took over the No1 ranking after an impressive 2-0 series win against Sri Lanka.

The Indian team is missing two major players for this series. Rahul Dravid is out with a fractured cheekbone and Yuvraj Singh is also missing due to a finger injury. Their replacements however are no strangers to the game. Murali Vijay has deputised in recent games and looked impressive each time, and is probably in better form then Yuvraj anyway. Dravid’s absence will be the more serious for India as his replacement; Badrinath has not played much cricket lately. He has played the odd ODI game, but is still to be tested in this format of the game and it will be interesting to see how he goes.

Overall I believe India, on these home pitches, will prove too strong for South Africa. The pitches will not be of much assistance to the South African pacers and they will struggle to bowl India out twice in either Test. The South African batsmen are capable of scoring big and they may be able to secure a draw, but a South African win in either Test is highly unlikely.

India should be odds on to win this series, but the market has them odds against. The value lies in backing India to win this series and I will not be surprised to see them win both Tests.

Therefore my suggested bets for this series are:

In the Series Outright Market:

BACK India to win for 5 points @ 2.40 at Totesport

In The Series Correct Score Market:

BACK India to win 2-0 for 2 points @ 7.0 at Totesport

Join me, as I believe lessons will have learnt and India will prevail comfortably this time.

Bigjoe