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West Indies v Australia 2nd Test In Running.... Not over yet, by a long shot.

Current prices on the exchanges:

Windies: 65.0

Australia : 5.3

Draw: 1.24

I said in my series preview that the Aussie dominance of recent years was drawing to an end and that laying them throughout this series would be profitable.

The main reason I cited was that with the loss of Warne and McGrath, their bowling, collectively, would struggle, especially on overseas tracks. Those that followed that advice and layed Australia as low as 1.45 in this test will be sitting pretty.

So, is this test the nailed on draw that the market suggests?

Yes, if we get any more major weather disruptions, but not necessarily if we don't.

Weather permitting, still 200 overs left in this Test and here are four scenarios that could lead to an exciting last day finish.

1) If the pitch plays like it has done so far, and one half on the Aussie bowling continues to bowl as they have done so far, then Windies could bat out all of today. they are scoring at around 3.6 an over so far and if they keep this up they would be around 130 ahead by the close. This lead would put Aussies under great pressure to save the game and Windies current odds of 65.0 will look massive and I would expect them to be trading in single figures.

2) If the pitch starts to break up Windies could be all out around tea time, a few runs in deficit. But as we saw in last test, Australia are capable of collapsing in 2 nd innings for under 200 and so we could see an exciting run chase on last day. Once again the current odds on Windies of 65.0 would look massive and I would expect them to trade in single figures.

3) If the pitch breaks up alarmingly, Windies could be skittled out early today with Aussies enjoying 150+ lead. But if the pitch is so bad that Windies lose 6 wickets for 70, and then there would be every possibility that Aussie too could be skittled for fewer than 150 and Windies chasing 300 on last day would not be a 65.0 shot, they would be in single figures.

4) Windies collapse today, but not due to pitch breaking up, more because of bad shots. A substantial lead for Australia going into the last day could see them tempted to try and seal the series and declare leaving Windies around 300 in 70 overs. Once again, in these circumstances, Windies current odds of 65.0 would look massive; they would be trading in single figures.

Four plausible scenarios, each one would see Windies trading in single figures. There would be opportunities to at least lock in a profit, and maybe they could go on to win it.

The weather is obviously going to be the key. If we get 2 clear days I believe there is still a chance of a result. I believe Windies at 65.0 would represent great value if we get those two clear days.

The weather has been variable so far and it would be prudent to only have minimal stakes on this, so my recommended bet today is:

BACK Windies for 0.5 points @ 65.0 on Betfair.com

Bigjoe