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England v New Zealand 3rd Test..... Back to reality?

At Lords I said a stalemate, and so it proved. At Old Trafford I said an England win inside 4 days, and so it proved.

We now come to the concluding test in this series, at Trent Bridge . I say, in the words of the song, its back to life, back to reality for England .

The reality that says England 's bowling attack relies too much on pitch and overhead conditions. The reality that says give them a slow pitch and their seamers struggle. The reality that says their batsmen tend to struggle against spin.

That struggle against spin was highlighted in their last two tests at this ground. They lost both emphatically to Sri Lanka and India .

Let's look at the prices on the Exchanges:

England 1.73

New Zealand 6.4

Draw 3.7

The gap between England and New Zealand prices is, quite frankly, laughable!

The Kiwi attack will be more suited to this spin friendly pitch then the England one. Vettori especially will enjoy it more then Panesar. Monty was effective at Old Trafford because of the extra pace and bounce. On a slower track, he does not have the ability yet to vary his pace or beat many batsmen in the flight.

Vettori is more experienced and I believe he will outperform Monty in this match, and that will prove to be the key.

In my opinion, a Kiwi win here is far more likely then an England one and the differential in these prices is simply WRONG!

But, as always, let's not complain too much, lets take advantage instead.

A Draw is also more likely then an England win. Though I fully expect the England bowlers to struggle, their batsmen, especially with the top three of Cook, Strauss and Vaughn in good nick, are capable of scoring enough runs to secure a draw, if they can overcome Vettori.

The English weather is also variable and unpredictable so it would be prudent to keep the draw on side.

The Kiwi batting line-up has impressed so far. The top order was expected to fold on this tour, but the likes of How and Redmond have done well, and with the strong middle order of Taylor, Oram and McCullum, I fully expect them to score more then enough runs to at least secure a draw.

So overall, in my opinion the draw should be slight favourite ahead of the Kiwis with England as the outsiders.

Therefore my suggested bet for this test is:

LAY England for 4 points liability @1.73 on Betfair.com

And also

BACK New Zealand for 1 point @ 6.5 at VC Bet, Stan James or Betdirect.

Bigjoe