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West Indies v Australia 3rd Test ... Odds behaviour

Weather Report

In my series preview I indicated that this series could be the catalyst and confirmation of the fact that recent Aussie dominance was drawing to an end.

Two tests gone, Aussie around 1.47 pre match in each, they win one after slumping to 18-5 in 2nd innings and Windies still having a good chance of winning when requiring 240 on last day with 9 wickets in hand.

Stuart Clark pulled it out of the fire for them in that test, however, interestingly, in the last test when Clark was not at his best Windies comfortably played out for a draw on last day. That signified to me the fundamental weakness in the current Aussie attack, namely too much reliance on Lee and Clark.

In their last five tests, Australia has been made big odds-on pre-match each time, yet they have failed to win three of them.

More worryingly for them, the two wins have been hard fought and in the case of Sydney against India , very fortunate due to some woeful umpiring decisions.

In all five games Australia failed to justify the very short odds, trading odds against each time. I cannot remember a period in last ten years when they struggled, relatively speaking, in five consecutive tests.

Now we come to the concluding test in this series, at Barbados . Let's look at the prices on the exchanges:

Australia 1.61

Draw 3.95

Windies 7.8

Well, it seems the market is slowly but surely realising that sub 1.5 on Aussies pre-match against anyone but the minnows is no longer justified. But it's a reluctant and stubbornly small movement out. I find this very strange behaviour by the markets in light of Aussies recent performances.

Australia should no longer be odds on in tests against a top eight team, especially overseas. Their bowling has proved beyond reasonable doubt that, collectively, they are now struggling to take twenty wickets. This 1.61 on them , though higher then in previous games, is still WOEFULLY too short and in think its massively odds on that they will at least trade at big odds against yet again, and those laying them will at least be in a position to lock in a profit.

Team changes for both teams in this test. Gayle and Chattergoon could be back to give a much needed boos to the Windies top order. Following MacGill's retirement, Australia could give a debut to the spinner Beau Casson. Time will tell if he is going to be the answer to Aussies spin problems, but with a first class average of over forty, the chances are slim.

I expect the Barbados pitch to have a bit more life and bounce. This should suit the Aussie bowlers a little more, however, I still think that, collectively, the Windies pacers will be more effective.

Ok, so what's the bet?

To put it simply:

If it's a result pitch, the Windies bowlers are just as likely the Aussies to pose problems and if there is a result, I make it even stevens the two.

If the pitch is a batters dream, then I think once again this Aussie bowling will not be taking twenty wickets in a hurry.

The obvious bet therefore, and my strong recommendation is:

LAY Australia for 3 points Liability @ 1.62 on Betfair.com

And also:

BACK Windies for 1 point @ 7.8 on Betfair.com

Bigjoe

(Ground info from Cricinfo.com)