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England v New Zealand 2nd ODI .... Drinking at the last chance saloon.

On his last drink at the saloon, Jesse Ryder, the Kiwi opener, ended up in a fight with a window!

At Edgbaston on Wednesday his team mates will be drinking in the last chance saloon and though I don't expect broken windows at the end, I do expect to see some fight.

The Kiwis cannot afford to go 2-0 down in this series and I fully expect a different approach from them in this crunch game.

Let's look at the prices on the exchanges:

England 1.48

New Zealand 3.10

England won the first encounter comfortably and obviously this is reflected in this very short price for this game. But NO TEAM should be 1.48 pre-match in this format against another top eight side, and NO TEAM should be this short price against the number three ranked ODI side.

Ok New Zealand have performed more like minnows then a top team so far on this tour and some may think 3.10 is a tad short on them too !

I disagree.

In this fifty over format, any team can pull it around. Just takes one or two good spells with the bat, or ball to make the difference.

Another thing that can make a difference is a change of approach and tactics.

In the first game the Kiwis paid the price for not having a specialist fifth bowler. They had England under control at 95-3 off 23 overs and should have restricted them to 250 at most. But they let it slip and the makeshift fifth bowler combination of Styris/ Taylor conceded 77 off 10 overs to give the momentum and confidence back to England .

On the batting front, McCullum gave New Zealand the flying start they needed in chasing up 307. But once he fell at 52-1 off eight overs, Marshall and How, instead of consolidating that good start, proceeded to limp along and managed to score just nine runs in the next six crucial overs of that first powerplay. This was the beginning of the end for New Zealand in that game, Marshall and How did the worst thing any top order batsmen can do in this format, namely eat up a lot of balls, slow the momentum, then get out cheaply, putting extra pressure on those that follow.

52-1 off eight soon became 71-3 ten overs later, and there was no coming back for the kiwis after that when chasing 307.

I will be amazed if New Zealand do not learn from their mistakes this time. I expect them to play Jeetan Patel to play as extra bowler this time and they will be looking to change their batting order too. It's doubtful if they will retain Marshall at number three, opting instead for Flynn, or even Taylor in that crucial position.

All credit to England though. They outplayed the Kiwis in every department and they will especially have been pleased to see Bell and Collingwood score some runs after a recent slump in form. Kevin Pietersen scored a masterful ton and once again he will be the key man.

On the bowling front, though Anderson and Sidebottom proved expensive, Broad, Collingwood and the ever improving Luke Wright were very effective.

I expect England to play an unchanged side and their confidence will be sky high.

So what's the bet?

Well if we went purely by the last game, then England , even at this very low 1.48 looks value BUT cricket is not as simple as that. Just last week, India beat Pakistan by 140 runs one day, then lost convincingly a few days later to the same team!

So though obviously England could win comfortably again, I really do not consider them any value at this 1.48

I would not encourage anyone to lay a side at 3.10 that contains the likes of McCullum, Taylor, Styris and Vettori, even if they are going through a rough patch.

Just as Bell and Collingwood turned it around, there is no reason why the Kiwi's cannot do the same.

This will be a crunch game for them, they have shown in the past that they can be a formidable unit on their day and therefore I suggest backing them to come good at last.

My bet for this game is:

Back New Zealand for 3 points @ 3.10 on Betfair.com.

Join me and hopefully after the Kiwis have had their drink at the last chance saloon, we can toast to their success.

Bigjoe