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West Indies V Australia Twenty20 ... I make it 50-50

Prices on the exchanges:

Australia 1.37

Windies 3.55

This will be the first ever international Twenty20 in the Caribbean and the first between these two sides.

Wholesale changes for both sides from the Test series are expected, and one of the most interesting and eagerly awaited one will be how Shaun Marsh, the surprising star of the recent IPL tournament in India.

Also in the Aussie line-up will be others that took part in that IPL, James Hopes, David Hussey, Luke Ronchi and one of the stars of Rajistan Royals triump, Shane Watson.

All very capable players in this format of the game, but none are as capable or as destructive as the partnership that Australia have got used to in the shorter formats of the game, namely Hayden / Gilchrist blasting away at the top of the order and giving them a flying start more times then not.

Just as the retirements of McGrath and Warne affected Aussies bowling in tests, I believe the retirement of Gilchrist and the ongoing injury problems of Hayden will seriously affect the Aussies in the shorter formats of the game.

Looks like Marsh will open with either Hopes or Michael Clarke. Clarke was tried in this position in the recent CB series and it did not work, but I expect he will be given the nod ahead of Hopes.

Acclimatisation could be a problem for the newcomers. It will be difficult for them to adapt to Windies conditions in their first match of the tour, especially as the pitch will offer a lot more life and pace then the pitches they played on in the IPL.

Whilst I expect one or two of them to do well, collectively I feel this Aussie batting line-up, whilst still very good, is not as strong as it has been, especially if Andrew Symonds does not recover from his back spasms.

West Indies too have a new look team.

Biggest miss for them will obviously be Gayle at the top of the order. But Xavier Marshal has been a revelation and his attacking style of play could be ideal in this format. Kieron Pollard, another exciting strokemaker, and William Perkins could both play. The middle order engine room of Sarwan, Chanderpaul and Bravo could again be the key.

Overall I think the Aussies have the edge in the batting department.

However, on the bowling front, I believe Windies have the edge.

Lee, Bracken, Johnson, Watson and Hopes look a bit too one dimensional to me and in this format you need some balance and bowlers that take the pace off the ball have proven to be very effective.

Windies attack of Taylor , Edwards, Sammy, Bravo and the spin of Benn has that balance and I believe this could negate the advantage that Aussies have with the bat.

Overall I make this 20/20 should be 50/50 chance, the market suggests otherwise, I feel that market is wrong, very wrong.

Aussies way too short at 1.37 and will trade a lot lot higher, Windies way too big at 3.55 and will trade a lot lot lower.

This will leads to plenty of opportunities to lock in a profit at least on this match.

Therefore my strong suggestion for this match is:

Back Windies for 3 points @ 3.55 on Betfair

Bigjoe.