e-mail to friend  print this article

The momentum in this series swung dramatically in favour of the Kiwi's after their series levelling win at Bristol.

The last place that England would have chosen to try and get that momentum back would be at the Oval, but that's where they find themselves on Wednesday.

England have lost four out of their last five matches at this ground, with the sole win coming against Bangladesh .

The main reason why they have struggled here is that there is not much swing or seam movement for their bowlers on this flat track. If the sun shines again on Wednesday and there are no overcast or damp conditions, then it's a safe bet that England 's mainly swing and seam attack will struggle once again.

This has been graphically demonstrated by the results at the oval in last three years.

2005, England score 228 and Australia knock it off with just two down and sixteen overs to spare.

2006, Sri Lanka post 320, England reply with 273

2007 England post a formidable 316, but fail to defend it as India win in the last over.

The England batsmen have performed well here, but the bowling has proved incapable of defending whatever England have posted, or has not been able to restrict the opposition from posting a massive total.

The prices on the exchanges:

England 1.62

New Zealand 2.54

In my opinion, the prices are right ... but the wrong way round!

Yes I believe Kiwis should be overwhelming favourites.

The fifty over format remains their best chance of success and with the confidence and momentum gained from their last two games in this series, I believe they will be very hard to beat.

Some may argue that this Kiwi batting is not as strong as the Australian, Sri Lankan or Indian ones from last three years.

I agree with that, however this pitch is so good for batting and whilst I expect both sides capable of scoring big, only the Kiwi bowling attack contains a spin bowler that can make a big difference.

That man is Daniel Vettori and I believe his ten overs will be key in deciding the outcome of this game.

The Kiwis may also be tempted to play a second spinner in Jeetan Patel, and if they do, then I would consider theirs to be the more balanced attack that will be essential on this flat pitch.

So what's the bet?

The weather looks set fair for the game, the conditions will not suit the seamers or pacers, and I expect a high scoring affair.

Bottom line is I believe that in the absence of helpful conditions, this England bowling attack will again struggle on this pitch to restrict New Zealand to a manageable total, or they will struggle to defend even a big total.

Therefore my strong suggestion is:

BACK New Zealand for 4 points @ 2.54 on Betfair

Bigjoe