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The last game will always be remembered for the push and shove incident involving Ryan Sidebottom and Grant Elliot.

It was an unfortunate incident, but, with Kiwis winning the game, hopefully there will be no recriminations going into this final game of the series.

Aside from Elliot, the Kiwis have been no pushovers in this series!

They have improved with every game and are now one game away from repeating a 3-1 series win that they secured on home soil earlier in the year.

Lords is the venue for the decider, and England will be confident of squaring the series here after beating India and West Indies comfortably in last two years here.

However key to both those wins was the overcast conditions that prevailed for those games, and the England bowling attack is at its best in those bowling conditions, especially bowling first at Lords.

The weather forecast for Saturday appears to suggest a warm day, with some patchy cloud.

This will make batting easier for both sides and I expect a higher scoring affair then in recent Lords games.

Paul Collingwood is missing for England after being suspended for slow over rates and it's likely that Kevin Pietersen will take over as captain. It will be interesting to see who comes in for Collingwood, I would imagine it's between Cook Opening with Bell AND Wright batting lower down, or Dimitri Mascarecenhas getting a game.

I believe Collingwood will be a big miss for England, though he has not been in the best of form, he is always capable and has held the middle order together on many occasions.

The biggest problem for England on the batting front is the lack of momentum at the top of the innings in power plays, and also the weakness of their tail, especially with Ambrose out of form.

This put too much pressure on the middle order and they often find themselves in two minds as to what approach to take.

Collingwood's absence could also impact on the balance of England 's bowling attack. He usually fits in a few overs, but without him, there are fewer options.

New Zealand were boosted in last match by the return of major player Jacob Oram. It was his positive knock that pulled the game round for the Kiwi's and once again he proved that the Kiwi's are a much better batting unit with him around.

Another bonus for Kiwis has been the form with the bat of Kyle Mills at no9 , he has looked calm , assured and very effective this summer, and if Vettori can regain his form with the bat too, the Kiwi tail looks far more solid then England, and its this depth in batting that will be key again in this match.

The pressure will be on England in this game, The Kiwis know they cannot lose the series now and I fully expect them to have the more positive approach.

Prices on the exchanges:

England 1.70

New Zealand 2.42

As in the last game, I find myself saying that these prices are right, BUT, the wrong way round!

Yet again I believe Kiwis should be favourites, but it appears the markets are stubbornly sticking with England , even though the Kiwis have won five of the last seven ODI meetings between these two!

So what's the Bet?

I say lets not complain about the market, let's take advantage and get on the Kiwi's at yet another generous price.

My bet for this game is:

BACK New Zealand to win for 4 Points @ 2.42 on Betfair.com

Join me because when push comes to shove, at these prices, it really does pay to side with the Kiwi's.

Bigjoe