Australia v England Ashes Series

By Big Joe

Commences Wednesday 25thth November, 00.00 GMT

For the first time in 24 years, England will be harbouring realistic thoughts of winning an Ashes series in Australia. Mike Gatting’s team of 1986/87 was the last one to prevail there and this class of 2010/11 under Andrew Strauss will be looking to emulate that, or the very least, draw the series and retain the little urn won in England last summer.

Fresh in the mind however will be the fact that after similarly winning the Ashes in the summer of 2005, England went down under 18 months later and were unceremoniously whitewashed 5-0. Avenge for that humiliation will be high on England’s agenda, a repeat of that will be high on Australia’s agenda.

First signs are encouraging for England as their build up, which was shambolic in 2006/07 has been almost perfect with three comprehensive wins in the warm up games and a lengthy period of acclimatisation before the first Test kicks of in Brisbane. The only concern will have been the lack of runs for Kevin Pietersen and Jonathan Trott and England will be hoping they can turn around their form when it counts.

It’s been a torrid few months for Australia in all formats. They lost both the Test and ODI series in India, only drew the Test series to Pakistan in England and have just suffered an ODI defeat at home to Sri Lanka. As a result, Australia find themselves in the extremely unfamiliar position of being below England in the Test rankings, the first time this has happened in the history of the rankings. But, as they showed when regaining the Ashes in 2007/07, Australia seem to step up to the plate in home ashes series and there is no doubt they will again provide formidable test for England.

England have been improving steadily in all formats in recent years, however they have continued to struggle overseas when there is little seam movement or helpful overhead conditions. Their only Test wins have come on the seaming paradises of New Zealand and South Africa. When faced with less favourable conditions on their most recent tours to Australia, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and West Indies, England have failed to win a single test match. Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad rely heavily on the right conditions and both have struggled on slower pitches.

 The one big plus for England though has been the form of their main line spinner, Graeme Swann. Invariably when the seamers have struggled, he has come to the rescue and has been the main reason for England’s recent successes. I believe England’s chances of retaining the Ashes rest enormously on him and the Australians will be well aware of that.

Ok, how do I see this panning out. I believe that once again the England pace bowlers will struggle in the absence of helpful overhead conditions and seaming tracks. The Australian bowling has come down a notch or two, however their batting remains strong and they bat deep. I feel the Aussies will score heavily more often then not unless Graeme Swann has an amazing series. Whilst I do not think the Aussies will repeat the 5-0 whitewash of last time, I am convinced they will regain the Ashes with a comfortable series win.

My suggested bets therefore are:

In The Series Outright Market:

BACK Australia to win for 5 points @ 2.0 at Sportingbet, VCBet

In The Series correct Score Market:

BACK Australia to win 2-0 for 1 point @ 34.0 at Totesport

BACK Australia to win 3-0 for 2 points @ 21.0 at Totesport, Sportingbet

BACK Australia to won 4-0 for 1 point @ 23.0 at VCBet

BACK Australia to win 3-1 for 1 point @ 13.0 at Ladbrokes, Coral

Big Joe