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West Indies v Australia 4th ODI.......... Frustrating Value

Basseterre , St Kitts hosts the 4th and 5th ODI's . The series is already in the bag for the baggy greens after three convincing wins.

The current prices on the Exchanges:

Windies 4.1

Aussies 1.3

The general pattern in the matches so far has been Windies getting off to great starts, with bat and bowl, but invariably folding and the Aussies coming through and winning convincingly each time.

The pattern in the in- play markets has reflected that as in most games, Aussies have drifted from pre match prices in range of 1.35, to close to or over evens , Windies prices have reached close to or shorter then evens from opening prices in range of 3.6- 3.9.

As I said in my previous articles in this series, those laying Aussies at these low pre match prices would almost certainly have opportunities to lock in a profit as I expected their price to drift.

That has proved to be the case, and I am confident that it will prove to be the case again in the remaining two games.

Windies have been what I can only describe as frustrating value in this series. They have got into great positions in each game, only to throw it away.

So what do we do?

Do we abandon them in the expectation they will fold again?

Yes we could, but by doing that we will almost certainly be missing out on trading opportunities at least, and possibly even a big priced winner if they finally covert a strong position with a win.

4.1 is a massive price in an ODI, even against the No1 team. Especially in a dead rubber game for which I expect the Aussies to rest one or two big players.

Today's game will be only the 2 nd ever ODI at Basseterre for Windies and Gayle, Sarwan and Chanderpaul will have special memories of the first one when they beat India in 2006.

Chris Gayle finally showed signs of returning to his best in last game before being unluckily run out at the non strikers end, and I think if he fires again, Windies could make a better fist of it this time.

Australia will again be formidable and very hard to beat, but I feel their intensity will be less now that the series is won. They have shown in the past that they are vulnerable in dead rubber games and for that reason I am happy to stick with the Windies for these final two games.

Windies know they cannot win the series, this sometimes can take pressure off a team and they play with more freedom. They will be playing for pride and be determined to avoid a humiliating series whitewash.

At these prices, I am happy to stick with the Windies for these last two games, confident that again I will, as a minimum, get opportunities to lock in a profit.

Windies have been frustrating so far, but they remain value in my opinion and so my suggested bet for today's game is:

BACK Windies for 2 points @ 4.1 on Betfair.

Bigjoe.