South Africa v India Test Series

By Bigjoe

Commences Thursday 16th December 08.30 GMT

A mouth watering series in prospect between the two top ranked sides in Test cricket kicks off at Centurion. India have in recent weeks increased their lead over the Saffers in the rankings after beating New Zealand at home whilst South Africa were being held to a disappointing 0-0 series against Pakistan in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. However, back on home soil, South Africa will be confident of making up ground having never lost a test series to India in home conditions.

Surprisingly, considering the importance of this series, the Indian team have no warm up games scheduled and South Africa could take advantage of this. The bouncy pitches and seamer friendly conditions have posed India problems in the past and South Africa will be hoping their struggles continue.

A few things have changed in recent years though to suggest that this time the Indians will be better placed to cope in these conditions. Over the past few years they have slayed a few dragons overseas, overcoming quite a few obstacles that seemed unsurpassable before.

India won away in England, they won away in West Indies and in New Zealand after decades of failures in those countries, and, interestingly, on their last tour to South Africa they won their first ever Test in what proved to be a close series. Furthermore, whereas in the past the Indians dreaded playing in South Africa, they have spent plenty of time there since there last tour with the IPL, T20 and Champions Leagues all being hosted there. The Indian players will have benefitted enormously playing on these pitches, albeit in the shortest format rather then Test matches.

Encouragement also for India in the shape of the recent inconsistent form of South Africa. The Saffers have managed to win just one of their last five Test series, and that was against the lowly ranked West Indies. Prior to that 0-0 draw against Pakistan, South Africa had very disappointing home series which saw them lose to Australia and held to 1-1 draw by England.

India’s batting remains strong. Tendulkar, Sehwag and Laxman are all enjoying purple patches and with Gambhir and Dravid showing glimpses of returning to form in recent weeks too, this batting lineup is capable of scoring big. The only disappointment has been the form of Raina and the common consensus seems to be that he could struggle against the short pitched ball on this tour. India will be hoping he comes through that, but if not they have very able reserves waiting to take over in Vijay and Pujara.

On the bowling from, the pacers Ishant Sharma and Sreesanth will be looking forward to bowling on livelier pitches then they encountered at home in recent months. Sreesanth in particular will be looking forward to it as he has pleasant memories of a very good tour last time when he proved as effective as any of the South African pacemen. The return from Injury of Zaheer will also be a big boost for India and along with Harbhjan enjoying the extra bounce for his spin, this Indian bowling attack is very capable of excelling on these pitches.

South Africa also have men in form with the bat. Amla, De Villiers, Kallis have been amongst the runs this year and Smith is also starting to contribute after returning from Injury. The main problem for the Saffers has been their bowlers inability of late to take 20 wickets in a test. Dale Steyn missed a few games through injury and his return has not seen him at his clinical best. The back up bowling of Morkel and Parnell has proved inconsistent and that’s the main reason why South Africa failed to press home big advantages in the recent drawn series against Pakistan.

The markets prices up South Africa as favourites, based mostly on them having home advantage and India’s historical record on these pitches. I believe the market has got this wrong. India are becoming just as formidable overseas as at home these days, they have most of their batsman playing the best cricket of their careers at the moment. They have a balanced bowling attack and I believe they will win at least two out of the three Tests in this series.

My suggested bets therefore are:

In the series outright market:

BACK India to win for 5 points @ 3.4 at Betfair

In the series correct score market:

BACK India to win 3-0 for 2 points @ 26.0 at Stan James

BACK India to win 2-0 for 2 points @ 11.0 at Stan James

BACK India to win 2-1 for 2 points @ 9.0 at Stan James

Bigjoe