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Since their reintroduction to Test cricket, South Africa have played three tests at Lords and won them all. In their last visit, they scored 682-7 and won by an innings. However, the last five tests at the home of cricket have all been drawn so something has got to give in this game.

The current prices:

England 4.7

South Africa 2.9

Draw 2.26

The draw has shortened in the last few days, mainly because of the expectation that this match is likely to be weather affected and indeed the forecast for all days does indicate plenty of showers.

But I have always believed that, unless we get total deluges and two days or more lost to rain, the damp and overcast conditions actually make a result more possible then five days of unbroken sunshine.

The bowling of both sides depends quite a bit on help from overhead conditions for seam and swing and I believe that if we can get at least four days play, we will see a result in this match.

The Lords drainage facilities are the best in the country and with the option of making up lost hours by extending play till 7.30 pm, I feel the equivalent of at least four days play will be possible and I do not consider this draw price of 2.26 to be value, especially if it's based on the weather.

So if it's not a draw, who wins?

England has won four of their last six tests, all against a weak New Zealand Team. They also beat West Indies 3-0 last summer, however whilst they have done well against teams ranked below them, they have failed to win any of the last eleven tests against teams ranked higher then them, and have lost seven out of those eleven tests.

The biggest problem for England has not been the bowling so much, but the inability of batsmen to convert decent starts into big hundreds and double hundreds. As a result they have only scored 400+ in first innings once in their last twelve tests.

Cook, Vaughn, Bell, Pietersen and Collingwood have all got pretty 60s and 70s , but rarely have they gone on to make massive scores that would ensure England post well over 450 runs that would put the opposition under pressure.

Their bowlers can do well in this test if the overhead conditions suit, but if the sun comes out, I fear they will struggle against a formidable South African batting line-up.

Overall, with that recent bad record against higher ranked sides, I do not see any value in backing England at this 4.7.

South Africa are in my opinion value in this match. They have a very strong batting line-up, with Smith and McKenzie opening, and Amla, Kallis, Prince, De Villiers and Boucher to follow. In contrast to the England batsmen, most of them have scored big hundreds and double hundreds recently and after very convincing series against India and Pakistan , their confidence will be sky high.

Smith in particular will have happy memories of this ground as he scored a massive 256 in his last test innings here.

The South African bowling is pace dominated with Steyn in outstanding form, backed up by Ntini, Nel and the ever improving Morkel. The downside in their attack is that they do tend to put a lot of their eggs in the new ball basket and if teams can get through that new ball period without too much damage, they can take advantage later on.

They do have mainly a one dimensional attack, with Paul Harris as the spinner and this has led to them struggling sometimes on unfriendly pitches. However, I expect ideal bowling conditions for this test and feel the South African attack will outperform the England one comfortably.

The exception could be Monty Panesar, especially in the 2 nd innings if the pitch takes spin.

South Africa used to be known for their weakness against spin in the past, but their performances on the sub continent recently showed that they are getting better all the time against spin and though I think Panesar could pose some problems, I don't think they will be match turning events.

The pitch at lords has changed over the last few years. It's very placid these days and that's the main reason why we have had those draws recently.

I would expect the same again, but the key in this test will be whether there is a substantial first innings lead for either team.

Placid pitches or not, sheer weight of runs can put pressure on a team and I fully expect South Africa to have that substantial first innings lead in this test.

As I mentioned earlier, key to building massive scores is batsmen going on and getting big hundreds and double hundreds. Of the two teams, the South African batsmen have shown regularly that they do have the discipline and patience to build these big scores and I believe this will be proven to be the case in this test.

A decent first innings lead for South Africa will put England under severe pressure and I believe that provided we get four days play at least, this pressure will tell and I can see South Africa coming out victorious yet again at Lords.

My suggested bet for this match is:

BACK South Africa for 4 points @ 2.9 on Betfair