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Sri Lanka v India 1st Test, Colombo .........A road to nowhere?

Sinhalese Sports Club Ground Colombo sees the opening test of this series. In last 4 tests here, Sri Lanka have 1st innings scores of 458-5, 756-5, 577-6 and 548-9 !!

So, on the face of it, in cricketing terms, this pitch is not just a road, but the M4, M6 and M25 rolled together!

India boasts one of the most formidable batting line-up ever in test cricket and should also make hay on this pitch.

No surprise therefore to see the draw as 1.85 fav in the markets, especially with thunderstorms forecast during the match.

Talking Heads famously sang:

"We're on a road to nowhere
Come on inside
Takin' that ride to nowhere
We'll take that ride"

But should we take that ride? , should we hop on the draw express at this price?

Plenty will, but not me, I will give it a miss.

So what other expresses can I hop on?

Sri Lanka express is available at 3.8. Not a bad price, especially with their run scoring sprees of recent years and even more tempting with the exciting likely debut of the new spin sensation Ajantha Mendis.

The Murali / Mendis spin partnership could prove to be the most lethal partnership since Bonny and Clyde and could take Sri Lanka to the next level in test cricket over the next couple of years.

Mendis reduced India to tatters in the recent Asia Cup with figures of 6-13 and his confidence will be high.

Sri Lankan batting is also formidable, with the only concern being finding a regular successful opening partnership in the absence of Jayasarua retired from tests.

This Sri Lanka express is indeed tempting to board, but before I take my first step onto it, let's look at the other alternative.

India are on offer at 5.7

Big price or what!!

Not really, on recent overseas tours they were:

9.0 to beat South Africa at Johannesburg .... they won.

6.8 to beat England at Trent Bridge ... they won

10.0 to beat Australia at Perth ... They won.

It seems they make a habit of winning tests overseas at big prices, and this 4.5 could be the latest feat.

On the batting front, they have Enid Blytons lot, the famous five of Sehwag, Dravid, Tendulkar, Laxman and Ganguly. On the bowling front they have the original spin twins of Kumble and Harbhjan Singh, as well as the new pace bowling sensation, Ishant Sharma.

The Sri Lankan pace attack is missing Malinga, Vaas is not the force he used to be since he lost a bit of pace and so they will be relying on the Murali/Mendis partnership to win this test.

India has the more balanced attack and I think this could be crucial in this match.

Though the Indian ODI players struggled against Mendis in that Asian Cup Final, test cricket is a different animal, and the overwhelming experience of the famous five against spin over the last decade should see them work out how to play Mendis. They already have proved to be effective against Murali and Shane Warne in the past, with both legends struggling, relatively speaking, against India then any other team and so I will be shocked if they now fail to negotiate Mendis.

Ok, decision time, which express am I boarding?

I am defiantly not boarding the draw express, it could end a high scoring bore draw, but I think the weather doubts are exaggerated and with both teams having match winning bowlers, I feel there will be a result in this match.

Overall, I feel India have a wealth of experience in both batting and bowling departments and I see them as likely winners, BUT, the Murali/Mendis spin partnership deserves respect and I really cannot rule out a Sri Lanka win either!

Therefore I have decided to dissect myself, three quarters of me is going to board the Indian Express, and one quarter is going to board the Sri Lankan Express as a saver.

My Suggested bets on this match:

BACK India for 3 points @ 5.7 on Betfair

BACK Sri Lanka for 1 point @ 3.8 on Betfair

Join me on that road to somewhere, come on inside.

Bigjoe

(Ground data from www.cricinfo.com)