e-mail to friend  print this article

In the good old Wild West, being quick on the draw was a matter of life and death. Too slow on the trigger in the duel and you was a gonner.

Edgbaston, Birmingham is the setting for the 3rd dual in this particular contest, and its England that are fighting for their lives after being massacred in the last meeting.

They have bought in reinforcements for their posse in the shape of Collingwood, Sidebottom and Harmison, but will this extra firepower save their bacon?

South Africa have lost one of their big guns, Dale Steyn, but will this loss of some ammunition leave them vulnerable?

Will anyone win this duel, or will both sides be firing blanks and survive to fight another day?

Questions, questions, lets now try and find the answers.

England named a 13 man squad including recalls for Collingwood, Sidebottom and Harmison. Word on the street is that Broad is likely to miss out from the final X1. I fully expect Flintoff, Sidebottom and Panesar to play so the dilemma for England will be choosing two from Collinwood, Anderson and Harmison.

If they decide to reinforce the batting with Collingwood, then they have to decide wether to drop Anderson for Harmison. If they decide to go again with just five batsmen, then both Anderson and Harmison would play as part of a five man attack.

My gut instinct is that they will go with Collinwood as the extra batsman, with either Harmison or Anderson missing out.

Trouble for England though is that even if they picked a 10 man bowling attack, its unlikely they can bowl out this formidable Saffers batting side out twice. Apart from that first innings at Lords, South Africa have dominated the English attack with five of their top six scoring tons. The exception so far has been Kallis, but I feel it's only a matter of time before he too joins the ton brigade.

Too many of the Saffers batsmen are in exceptionally good form that I really cannot see how England, even on one of their favourite pitches, can bowl them out cheaply to set up a win.

I fear that in this duel, England will part many shots, but they will largely be blank ones and I expect Saffers batting to remain largely unperturbed by them.

Ok, so does this mean that we are in for another comfortable Saffers win?

NO!

To win tests, scoring tons by themselves is not sufficient. You need the bowlers to back up those runs by taking 20 wickets.

With their main strike bowler, Dale Steyn, missing, I feel the South African bowling loses a major part of its ammunition. His replacement could be Andre Nel, a decent bowler, but not in the class of Steyn and with Ntini blowing hot and cold in the first two tests and Harris not the best spinning option in the world, it will largely be down to the impressive Morne Morkel to strike the killing blows.

England, especially if they bolster the batting with Collingwood, are more then capable of scoring big against a weakened attack and I fully expect them to put up a better show this time.

I believe South Africa will also struggle to take 20 wickets this time, but at 1-0 up in the series, their desperation for wickets won't be as much as Englands and they will be content to just bat and bat and settle for a draw to preserve that series lead.

So what the bet?

Overall, I believe this test will be dominated by the bat. I expect very big first innings scores for both teams and a high scoring bore draw the most likely outcome.

There are weather concerns around too and we could see the draw price tumble even before a ball is bowled.

Rain will make a draw even more likely, but I am confident that even if do not get a drop of rain, the end result will still be a stalemate.

Therefore, my suggestion is that we get on the draw, and be quick about it. Any chance of rain delays will see the market over react and shorten the draw price alarmingly, so lets pre-empt that and get on early.

Bet for this match is:

BACK draw for 4 points @ 2.25 at Ladbrokes.

Join me, let's be quick on that draw and see both sides standing at the end.

Bigjoe