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Sri Lanka v India 3^rd Test, Colombo…..Lets play detective.

Columbo, played by Peter Falk, was my favourite TV detective. His trademarks were a dishevelled appearance and that famous raincoat.

Most of his cases involved murder mysteries and he always caught the villain. Hopefully there won’t be any murders at Colombo investigate, but there is defiantly a mystery to solve…..the mystery of whom, if anyone, will win this 3^rd and final test of this series.

Let’s play detective and try and unravel the clues from previous crime scenes and see if we can solve this mystery.

First of all, because it’s the monsoon season, I felt it prudent to keep the draw on side in the last test. The weather fears however, in both previous tests has been proved to be exaggerated as any rain that has fallen seems to have been at night and so the first thing we will do is get rid of our raincoat and hope once again that there are no major rain interruptions.

India were left dishevelled after being massacred in the first test at the Sinahalese Sports Club, Colombo. The chief culprits in that massacre were the Sri Lankan spin twins Murali and Mendis.

They tried to repeat the feat in the 2^nd test at Galle, however, this time the element of surprise had gone and the Indians were ready for them. This time it was them that carried out a smash and grab raid and ran off with spoils. Chief suspects in this raid were India’s Spin twins, Kumble and Harbhjan, assisted by another accomplice in the shape of pace bowler, Ishant Sharma.

Now we come to the latest crime scene at the P Saravanamuttu ground in Colombo.

Who will emerge victorious here, who will run off with the spoils, or will they be shared.

Let’s look at some clues from the previous cases.

With hindsight, its obvious that India were undercooked in the first test, and also it was their first experience of facing Mendis.

Losing the toss on that road pitch did not help either and they found themselves up against a 600 first innings total from Sri Lanka. There was no coming back from that and they capitulated to an innings and 239 run defeat.

It was a different story in the 2^nd Test at Galle though. This time they won the crucial toss. This time they were more prepared for Mendis and this time they were not undercooked.

Murali was less effective, but Mendis still grabbed a ten wicket haul. However he was more expensive this time and, crucially, India’s top 4 of Sehwag, Gambhir, Dravid and Tendulkar showed signs that they were picking him a lot better and were very positive against him.

Also this time, India’s own spin twins Kumble / Harbhjan came to the party and along with Ishant Sharma, their bowling attack proved to be the more balanced and so it proved with a combination of Sharma and Zaheer causing mayhem at the start of Sri Lanka’s 2^nd innings and Kumble/Harbhjan finishing the job off and India winning by 170 runs

So what happens next?

The pitch at this PSS, Colombo ground is not the batters paradise that is the case at the Sinhalese Sports ground. There is more bounce and carry on here and is usually a fair contest between bat and ball and will help both spin and pace.

Both teams have the batsmen to score big, both teams have spin twins that can cause carnage. However only one team has the balance in their bowling attack that covers all eventualities. That attack is the Indian one and I believe this is going to be the major difference between the sides here.

Whilst Sri lanka will again be relying on Murali and Mendis, India have potential match winner in the pace department with Ishant Sharma, as well as the spin of Kumble and Harbhjan.

The Indian batsmen improved markedly in their playing of Mendis in last test. They even made Murali look ordinary again and I feel that they can only improve further in this test.

Once again a first innings lead is going to be crucial in this test. The pitch will defiantly help the spinners on last two days and whoever has a decent lead will have a big advantage going into those last two days.

So, having examined the clues, what can I deduce?

I believe India’s advantage in the pace bowling department will ensure that once again its them that have that crucial first innings lead and feel once again they are the more likely winners of this test.

They have the momentum after their convincing win in last test, they have confidence that they are playing Mendis better each time, and they know that if they can overcome Mendis, they will be in strong position in this test.

I believe the mystery is solved, it will be another smash and grab raid by India and it will be them and their backers that run off with the spoils. Main villain will be Sharma and the Indian spin twins.

My suggested bet for this match therefore is:

BACK India for 4 points @ 3.7 on Betfair

Join me, and like Columbo, we too can take great satisfaction in having cracked another complex mystery.