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Sri Lanka v India ODI Series..The good, the bad and the ugly

Clint Eastwood played the man with no name in the famous spaghetti westerns. He came out of nowhere, a man of mystery and left his mark after each episode.

India, in the test series, have just been humbled by a man that also seems to have from nowhere, a man of mystery, this one though has a name, Ajantha Mendis, and he too has left his mark after each match.

India 's performances recently in the 50 over format have been good, in the case of the CB series triumph against Australia. Bad in the capitulation against Mendis in the Asia Cup final, and darn right ugly in the manner of their exit from the last world cup by Bangladesh.

So what about this series, will Indian backers prevail and walk off with a fistful of dollars, or will it be the Sri Lankan backers banking a few dollars more!

For this series, four of India 's senior citizens Ganguly, Kumble, Laxman and Dravid have left town. As has Tendulkar who is injured. In have come the young guns Yuvraj, Rohit, Raina, Kohli, Badrinath, Pathan and the leader of the gang, MS Dhoni.

On the bowling front, Zaheer, RP Singh, Pathan, Harbhjan and Ojha represents a good balance and are capable of troubling most sides, especially on slow low pitches which we are likely to see in this series.

Sri Lanka also make changes. In comes the veteran Jayasurya at the top of the order. Bighitting middle order batsman Silva, all rounder Maharoof and pace bowlers Fernado and Thushara.

Out go the openers Warnapura, Vandort and the impressive Prasad. Sangakarra will take over the Wicketkeeper role from Prasana Jayawardne.

Sri Lankan bowling with Mendis and Murali at the heart, and Maharoof, Vaas and Fernado as pace options, looks formidable and they hold the edge over the Indian attack.

The batting order also looks formidable and long and on their day they can destroy most teams.

So a tough series to call. The market makes Sri Lanka short priced favourites and they could justify those short odds.

Am I tempted by these odds though?

No thanks!

India at odds against appeals to me much more.

If this was a one off game, I probably would be in two minds. Sri Lanka have beaten India in important one-ff games recently. Most famously at the world cup, and more recently in the Asia Cup Final.

But this is not a one off game, this is a series of five games. Let's look at how India have fared in ODI series on Sub continent pitches in last 3 years.

They have beaten Sri Lanka 6-1 and 2-1, They beat Pakistan 4-1 and 3-2. They beat West Indies 3-1 and England 5-1.

Their only loss was a 2-4 home defeat to Australia .

The overwhelming pattern seems to be that though they have one bad day each time, overall they tend to win the series comfortably.

The big difference this time though is the obvious threat of Mendis. His 6-13 spell in that Asian Cup final announced his arrival to the world, and he made the Indian middle order look like amateurs.

Key to this series will be whether India have learnt anything from that debacle and whether they can ensure there is no repeat.

The test series won't have given them too much encouragement. Mendis humbled them again in the first test with match figures of 8-132.

In the 2 nd test, though India won, Mendis was still a handful with match figures of 10-209

In the third test once again he was effective with match figures of 8-137.

So, in light of these amazing figures, why am in still tempted to back India?

Well, for a start, it's a different format. Mendis will only have a maximum of 10 overs to bowl, possibly with fielding restrictions.

Secondly, though he made most of the Indians look foolish in the test series, the openers Gambhir and Sehwag seemed to have his measure.

They both adopted a positive approach when they faced him and I expect India in this series to learn from that and will not let him dictate as he did in the tests.

Indeed that opening partnership of Sehwag and Gambhir is the main reason why I am tempted to back India in this series. They are both in prime form and I think its odds on that they will get India off to a flyer in the majority of the games. This flying start will give India the momentum and the confidence to post, or chase up big scores.

Another reason I am tempted to back India is the return of their inspirational captain, MS Dhoni. He has led from the front, is in prime form with the bat and seems to be able to get the best out of his players. His leadership in the CB series triumph against Australia put Ponting into the shade, and I believe that once again his presence will make a big difference.

Sri Lanka will also be confident after their test series win, and they will be very tough to beat.

India though , arguably, still have one of the best collective ODI batting lineups in world cricket and I believe they are more then capable of winning at least three of these 5 games and so wrapping up the series.

My bet is:

BACK India to win the series for 4 points @ 2.2 or better on Betfair .

Join me and we could all sail off into the sunset, clutching those fistful of dollars!

Bigjoe