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Article: Calm Before The Storms

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Calm Before The Storms

The postponement of the ICC Champions trophy was terrible news for some players, broadcasters and sponsors. It was dreadful for me too.

Not because I would miss out on a months bonanza of cricket, not because I would not be having many bets, but because the missus has found out about it and says I now have no excuses at all for not finishing of the shelving in the bedroom, the painting in the garage, the gardening and driving her to every shop in Essex trying to find a pair of shoes she likes!!

I have half a mind to sue the ICC for infringing my human rights.

Seriously though, frustrating it may be but the right decision was made. The security situation in Pakistan has not improved and at the end of the day safety had to be the paramount consideration. The players now get a month off to reflect on what has happened recently and to recharge their batteries in readiness for some big challenges that face most countries over the next year.

Whilst I am carrying out my domestic chores, I too will be reflecting on what’s gone on recently, and looking at some of those challenges that lie ahead for each team.

England:

A great end to the summer for them with the 4-0 demolition job of South Africa in the Nat West series. This was an amazing turnaround by England after losing their previous two ODI series to New Zealand. Central to the improvement was the appointment of Kevin Pietersen as skipper. Just as crucial was the return to top form of Flintoff and Harmison. KP has defiantly got the whole team firing and confidence is sky high. I expressed doubts about the appointment of KP, but though it’s early days, it looks like my doubts were unfounded.

However, having said that, the biggest tests lie ahead in the next year, culminating in the Ashes series.

First up will be the Stanford Million games at the end of October. Whilst the prospect of winning a million dollars each will be an exciting one for the lucky players that are involved, it could lead to discontent in the dressing room that may simmer for a long time afterwards. Some players that looked like they would be in the reckoning earlier this year must now be doubting their participation as Harmison, Prior and Samit Patel look to have taken them over in the pecking order. Also the test specialists like Strauss, Panesar and Cook could feel aggrieved at missing out on the lolly.

I feel the best way forward would be for the England players to share the loot between everyone that represented England in any format over the last year. This would ensure no ill feeling and would guard against bitterness and envy creeping into the dressing room.

In November and December England face a gruelling and testing tour to India. Seven onedayers followed by two tests.

Apart from the final ODI in Delhi, the other six ODI’s will be held in unfamiliar outposts of India for the England Team. There will be a lot of travelling between the games and I feel that by the time of the tests, the England players will be physically drained and they could struggle to avoid losing both tests.

The new year sees England play in the Windies. A tour that will not be easy either as slowly but surely the Windies are starting to find some form. They still lack consistency and are still prone to spectacular batting collapses, but with test wins recently against Sri Lanka and South Africa, they proved they can be a match for any team if they on song.

Next spring sees England take on Sri Lanka in two tests. The alarming news on that front is that it looks like the Sri Lankans will only be sending a second string team to allow their big names to play in the IPL Twenty 20. This is a worrying precedent and I for one hope that it does not become the norm in future.

After that series England host the Twenty20 World cup before facing Australia in that all important bid to regain the Ashes.

I feel the key to England repeating the feat of 2005 will be momentum and confidence. If they can get good results against India, Windies and Lanka over the next few months, there is no reason why they cannot get their hands on that sacred ashes urn this time next year.

Australia:

A critical phase coming up for the baggy greens.The next year could see the beginning of the end for their recent domination in all formats.

They start with a 4 test series in India in October, then home and away test series against South Africa before defending the Ashes next year.
India will once again pose them the biggest problems, especially on their home turning tracks. Australia’s main problem will be a lack of a specialist world class spinner for those tracks. Beau Casson made his debut in the Windies, but he looked anything but special.
Further bad news for the Aussies comes in the shape of Andrew Symonds being disciplined this week and it’s a strong possibility that he could miss the tour.

Hayden still very injury prone and the predominantly pace attack of the Aussies could be found wanting on these slow low tracks are other concerns.

I think Australia will do very well even to draw the series against India and they could also come unstuck against South Africa who, in tests at least, still look formidable.

The Ashes in 2009 could see final confirmation that the Aussies domination of world cricket has come to an end.I think defeats to India and South Africa could see Australia’s confidence at an all time low and England could take advantage of that next summer.

India:

Busy year ahead for India.

They will be relieved that their trial by spin by Mendis is over and they look forward to home series against Australia and England. They beat England away and all but matched Australia away too and so they will be confident of winning both these return series in favourable home conditions.

Next March sees India tour New Zealand and this could prove to be their toughest challenge. Not because the Kiwi’s are a better side but simply because historically India has struggled on those bouncy seaming pitches there.

Then comes the Twenty20 world cup and I think India will find defending their title a lot more difficult then winning it. When they won, the pressure was not on as they played a young inexperienced side and not much was expected of them. This time, as holders, teams will be motivated and keen to knock them off their perch.

The IPL Twenty20 league just prior to the world cup will be good practice for the main event and once again I think India will do very well in this format of the game.

Overall, I am expecting further improvement from India in all formats and this time next year should see them as one of the top two sides in the world.

South Africa:

A disappointing end to their English tour with the 4-0 drubbing in the Nat West series will have alarmed the South Africans.

Though they achieved their main objective of winning the test series, the manner in which they were totally outplayed in the ODI’S will have been of great concern.
Micky Arthur has now indicated that some big names like Kallis, Gibbs and Ntini could make way for some new blood in the shorter formats.

I think this transition will mean further defeats for South Africa in the shorter formats and I can only see them slipping further down the rankings.

However in Tests they remain formidable and they have crucial home and away series against Australia on the agenda in the next few months.
As mentioned earlier, I am expecting Australia to struggle against top teams now and I believe South Africa will win the home series and possibly even the away one.

I don’t expect them to do much in the Twenty20 World cup though, they lost to Bangladesh in the last tournament and can see them being embarrassed again.

Sri Lanka:

Rarely does one player dominate test series. But in Ajantha Mendis , Sri Lanka have found a gem. His partnership with Murali was the main reason why Sri Lanka beat India in the tests series last month, and I believe they will be tormenting all the other sides too over the coming years.

The concern for Sri Lanka in recent years was always how they would cope after Vaas and Murali. We got the answer now!

Not only Mendis, but Prassana, Thushara and Warnapura all look decent finds and I believe Sri Lanka over the next few years will be invincible at home and very effective abroad.

They still have Malinga to come back and, collectively, they will have the best balanced bowling attack of all the sides and they can only shoot up in the rankings in all formats over the coming years.

West Indies:

Probably the most frustrating team to watch. They looked different class when they won tests against South Africa and Sri lanka recently, and they even got into some winning positions against Australia, but some spectacular batting collapses saw them turn wins into narrow losses.

They have been unlucky with injuries lately to Gayle and Sarwan, and I believe once these two get back to playing regularly, the Windies are more then capable of beating most teams.

One thing they need to address though are those famous batting collapses, if they can do that, them I believe they could improve dramatically in the coming year.

Pakistan:

The abandonment of the ICC champions trophy was a devastating blow for Pakistan Cricket, not only financially coming on the back of refusals by Australia and New Zealand to tour there earlier, but also for cricketing reasons.

They simply are not playing enough competitive cricket that all players need to develop and improve their games. On top of this, major problems and controversy continues to surround their best two bowlers, Asif and Ahktar.

The security situation in Pakistan shows no sign of improving in the short term and sadly I cannot see many non Asian countries touring there for a while.

This can only mean further long periods without competitive cricket for them and I cannot see how in those circumstances they can come close to having any sustained period of success in any format.

New Zealand:

Still ranked no3 in ODI rankings and its format that remains their best chance of glory.
The loss of Flemming and Bond has hit them hard and with not many obvious replacements coming through, I cannot see the Kiwis winning many tests in the coming years. They can still be a force on home pitches, especially against the Asian sides who are not used to those types of pitches, but overall I think the Kiwis will slip further down the Test rankings.

With McCullum, Ross Taylor, Oram and Vetorri around, they could be dark horses for the Twenty20 World cup, but aside from that they do not have enough quality players to win many series.

Ok, that’s enough from me. Time to start on those domestic chores, trouble is …… I cannot remember where I hid those paintbrushes and the lawn mower!!

Bigjoe

Author: Big Joe, Published 04 Sep 08
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